Beating markets (bragging thread)

Punched the beloved S&P500 in the face last year, PA 25.9% return vs SPX 12.0%. cheeky

Coming out fighting like a maniac here in 2017, up 3.8% already vs SPX 1.6%.

But what I’m looking for is the big one (again). You get a win like in 2008, and the market can never really catch up, unless you seriously screw up. Like if the market tanks -30%, and you go +10% cause you’re short, that’s 40% outperformance…you could sail on that for a decade without even trying. Come on Trump, make me dinner, we need some vol!!!

Up 48% last year, up 7.2% YTD for 2017

My account is pretty small though so its much less impressive. Big winners for 2016: FCX, NVDA, RIG, TMUS, GOOG

I’ve beaten the German stock market by 5%-10% on average for the last 3 years, depending on how you benchmark it.

Best call was Adidas. Bought at 57€ 2,5 years ago, now the stock is around 150€. Still have my initial position in the portfolio even if the stock got pretty expensive, cashed the rest.

I avoid banks and levered companies, so all considered my outperformance is pretty decent considering that my portfolio is likely less risky than the market.


Not hacksaw smiley

This is all great guys, but one year is one year. I think if you brag, you should also disclose your worst ever year. devil

lol brag

Started trading in Aug of 2015 and was down ~ 7% at year end. That quickly went to down 20% when the market went wild in Feb of 2016 but thats when I scooped up more FCX @ 3.75 which made my year.

That said I have no delusion that I am so crazy investor, I certainly take on a bit more risk than most and am likely still largely riding beta as its pretty easy to produce solid returns in this market.

Good point, pulling history…

Started trading beginning of 2007, my first buy was AAPL the day they announced the iPhone! Beat the market every year I was in the market, avg outperformance 22.3% vs global equities (FTSE Global All Cap Index). Worst year in absolute terms, which was also the smallest relative beat, was 2015 at 2.0%…basically flat. Bchad and I correctly called that year flat, but I did not yet have derivative strategies worked out to profit in these environments. Largest relative win was 2008, 42.2% outperformance (again, I did not yet have derivatives strategies like shorting futures and buying puts, so I preserved capital, but didn’t make any shorting).

2017 is the most concerning year I’ve experienced. 2008 was easy, I worked in subprime and knew I wanted the f@#$ out. But this year sucks because nobody knows anything, could crash, could be raging stimulus bull. Don’t wanna get beat by the damn friggin’ SPX, even though that’s not my benchmark, I don’t like the thought of getting beat by that thing.

The active portion of my portfolio did well. It was heavily overweight banks and it was doing pretty good before Trump, but exceptionally good after him. The portfolio went from +20% to +40%. But majority of my investments are in passive and that active section is fairly small. It only increases when I find a new stock to buy. Before this year I didn’t have an active portfolio, because it was against compliance rules at a prior job.

I’m up 15% last year, just took a 15 minute call with geico! Annualize that and it’s something like a 5250k % return!

Would you ever want to trade full time / start your own fund?

I already do, haven’t worked a “real job” in years. Gotta finish registering with the SEC this month, maybe Trump will slim down this Dodd Frank paperwork, not fun…

Besides pure returns, do you plan to do anything else for growth?

What are you registering as?

up 45% in 2016, 76% in 2017. strictly with borrowed money so again, 2 more years at infinity percent.

how the heck are you up 76% in 2017?

And here I was, all proud about my outperformance. You guys put me to shame.

However PA does deal in very speculative trades so I don’t know how he should be benchmarked.

I’m actually up 98% in 2017 as of Friday close. If you can tell which Canadian mining company was up ~15% from noon Friday to close Friday, you’ll know what I own. Similar to my big mining trade in late 2010 early 2011 where I bought a stock for 0.9x net cash, this was one of the most obvious trades I’ve ever come across. Basically bought the stock at 0.2x BV when all of its peers traded at 1x BV. And it has a better asset and better management than its peers.

wow props dude thats impressive

just got out of the trade this morning. up 138% in 2017.