I have question on the example 3 - Book 2 / Study Session 3 / Reading 7 / Page 40.
The original answer is highlighted in red, but according to the errata from CFAI, the answer should be changed to what is written in the highlight box above.
What I do not understand is that the original answer is right to me: the portfolio will result in at least 2,067,451 euro with 85% probability (because 50% chance to result 2,067,451 euro and 35% chance to result 2,339,216 euro).
The changed version does not make sense to me (“with 35% probability”).
For example with the same logic, the portfolio will result in at least 1,800,000 euro with 85% (100% - 15% = 85%) probability ??? actually the probability should be 100% because the portfolio will result in at least 1,800,000 euro all the time.