best way to guess

Things are getting desperate…I’m hoping for a good and fair exam. If they throw some major curve balls my ass is fucked.

If you’re down to 2 choices, which way do you go?

  1. All ‘‘A’’
  2. All ‘B’
  3. Or do you go ‘eenie meanie minie mo…’


Call your nearest proctor over and ask them to give you a random number

If even #, choose A

If odd #, choose B

If no answer / refuse to answer, choose C

Something that I learned from my poker playing days that might be useful. Have a watch with you that has the hand for the seconds. If it’s pointing between 0 and 20 seconds, you choose A, if between 20 and 40, B, if between 40 and 0, C. Just a way a randomize your answers if you are completely unsure about the answer.

Go with C. C stands for Correct!

If the correct answers are uniformly distributed amongst A, B, and C, it makes no difference what you pick.

I have actually kept track on mock exams and can confirm that the answers are indeed evenly distributed with roughly (±2) 20 for a 20 for b and 20 for c in a given session.

Guessing “A” on all of them would give you a 33% based on my experience with the mocks.

If you were to answer 40 questions correcly where 20 were A, 15 were B and 5 were C, then that would mean that you would get the most points by guessing C on the other 20.

I may go with that strategy.


Thats what Im doing. Its kind of an ‘all-in’ strategy because if you are erroneously assuming mostly Cs remain, you already missed a bunch anyway. If you assume correctly than you beat the guessing rate.

Use the RAND function on your calculator (BA II Plus, it’s 2nd then hit the Divide sign)

If between 0 and 0.3333333333333, pick A

if between 0.33333333333333333 and 0.66666666666666666 pick B

if between 0.666666666666666666 and 1 pick C

If you can’t answer any questions on the exam, at least you had a use for your calculator…


Reread the question a few times and do your best to eliminate one answer.

Or two.

I have derived my own method, which has some success, like most of the time if you are answering the questions, u tends to get continuosly same alphabet like for Q.4-6 all B, which u know because u solve , so when i guess or no clue go with last answer alphabet.

Safest will be do it 15 min before exam see what alphabet is less there on ur answersheet, lets say u answered 50, out of which 22 A, 16 B & 12 C, then go for all C , so that if CFAI keeps all about equal (so that not giving anyone extra for guessing on exam) , chances of C as an answer out of remaining Q, will be high. U may try in one of mock if it helps.