I’m looking to place a bet this Friday on the chance that Friday’s retail sales in the US are going to be above expectations. I know I’m bucking the trend here, but I have a strong feeling that the recent slide in equities (esp. retail) is a bit overdone, at least in the short run, and that sentiment indicators may underestimate the amount of shopping people are planning on doing this xmas holiday shopping season. Any thoughts?
Considering Kohls is opening at 4am now, and the outlet mall in the area opens at 12am, I think sales will beat expectations.
No offense, but how precisely will you put your bet on? When will you realize your P&L?
Rochambeau?
definitely rochambeau
ahahah Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > No offense, but how precisely will you put your > bet on? When will you realize your P&L? In Friday, out Monday… at least that’s the plan.
I dunno, I have a feeling that consumers are going to spend “one last time” this season, and we’ll be paying the price in Feb and March.
The results of this day tomorrow should be quite interesting. With stores opening as early as 4am, I’m wondering if there will be more foot traffic and eye buying in the stores rather than customers making actual purchases.
I was thinking about this one too. Longing KSS and TGT and shorting XRT. Did’t do it. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Im going to guess lower than expectations
Lame. Black Friday is a lame idea. In fact, I’d short everything consumer. Tiffany’s is going after Ebay for counterfeit goods. For God Sakes! If a company like Tiffany is doing well, it doesn’t go after Ebay! Common Sense is not taught in any LOS, but it’s more valuable than any LOS. Why do you think XMAS campaigns have started in late October? Hmmm. You want to play a bear market in a recession for one Black Friday?
What was the verdict on Friday? When will we know if it was good/bad?
BosyBillups Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Lame. Black Friday is a lame idea. > > In fact, I’d short everything consumer. Tiffany’s > is going after Ebay for counterfeit goods. For > God Sakes! If a company like Tiffany is doing > well, it doesn’t go after Ebay! Common Sense is > not taught in any LOS, but it’s more valuable than > any LOS. > Pretty funny. Yes common sense is absolutely important. How does common sense suggest shorting everything consumer because TIF is protecting its brand name by suing eBay?
Wouldn’t short consumer everything, but would short consumer a lot. And not because Tif is suing ebay, but because the consumers don’t have money, and the money they do have is either becoming worthless or owed to someone else.
What’s this “would” stuff? If you want to short consumer stocks, is there something stopping you? I think I’m up about 40% or so on this trade: http://www.analystforum.com/phorums/read.php?1,516422,516422#msg-516422 (short TLB at 25.15)
Preliminary results for Black Friday were stated on NBC Nightly News last night. According to early results, sales were up about 8.3-8.5% from last year’s Black Friday. But they also mentioned although sales were up, the consumer mainly benefited not the retailers. Simply because all the stores offered such low discounts, they may not have made a profit and it may not help with their 4th quarter earnings.
Thanks CFAmember2010 I wonder if Bernanke will see that as a deflationary force.
BosyBillups Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Lame. Black Friday is a lame idea. > > In fact, I’d short everything consumer. Tiffany’s > is going after Ebay for counterfeit goods. For > God Sakes! If a company like Tiffany is doing > well, it doesn’t go after Ebay! Common Sense is > not taught in any LOS, but it’s more valuable than > any LOS. > > Why do you think XMAS campaigns have started in > late October? Hmmm. > > You want to play a bear market in a recession for > one Black Friday? Show me one thing in the market’s behavior that’s ‘common sense’ related. As I mentioned in my previous post, this is a quick trade… not a medium or long term play here. And when making a quick trade, the only thing that matters is being ahead of the expectation curve. In this case, retailers were being hit hard on the expectation that future sales would be low due to credit, consumer spending, sentiment, etc. BUT, markets always overreact and Black Friday was just the sort of catalyst the market needed to create a bounce. As you’ve probably already seen, the market… in particular, retailers… was up on Friday on news that Black Friday sales were already looking to be positive. Now whether that turns out to be true or not and to whom the benefit goes is a completely different story.
And if you bet early on Friday, you’ve got a gain. Good job.
ah hem