Bolsonaro

[Malee]

Wow, this is shockingly coherent, are you sure you don’t want to add anything about corporate mind control, low IQ, or head sizes?

I love the story of when Deng Xiaoping (邓小平) visited Singapore and Lee Guan Yew (李光耀) lectured him about how he needs to make Singapore like changes in China. Deng listened patiently then replied that the ideas are great, and if he’s ever the mayor of Shanghai he will implement…

@purealpha

@Matt_Likes_Analysis

turning most SOEsinto private companies (which will convert them into mostly US owned companies, such as ERJ)

So is this just part of the US consolidating/expanding their corporate empire in prep for WWIII with China?

@Carson

How do you view the Chinese central government on a left-right spectrum?

Well, I should start by saying the left/right spectrum is bullshit.

The Chinese people are massively conservative (socially and financially). The government practices a hybrid of long-game central planning, bottom up capitalism, and top-down SOE corporatism. I don’t know what that makes it in a left/right binary model.

[Malee]

Also, the jury is out on Xi. The clampdown on control has had an adverse impact. The environment for small and medium sized business was improving last many years. After last year, it has markedly reversed, with SOE once again crowding out small business. China is famous for playing the long game, but they sure do make a lot of lousy short term decisions.

[Pepper]

.

[Pepper]

To recap:

* All polls throughout 2018 show Lula would easily win the presidency

* Judge Moro rushes to convict Lula on dubious charges, preventing him from running

* Bolsonaro wins with Lula in jail

* Moro to get high, powerful position in Bolsonaro’s government

#Justice

The judge who put Lula in prison on a highly dubious conviction, which resulted in Lula’s being barred from running while leading all presidential polls, just got his reward: formally accepted Bolsonaro’s offer to be Justice Minister

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1057976093318266880?s=21

[ohai]

https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/brazil/2018/11/bolsonaro-will-offer-superministry-to-operation-carwash-judge.shtml

"President-elect Jair Bolsonaro plans to offer federal judge Sergio Moro a turbocharged version of the Ministry of Justice.

The department will be joined with the ministries of Public Safety, Transparency, the Comptroller General of the Union, along with the Council for Financial Activities Control, a department created to fight money laundering and that until now was subordinated to the Ministry of Finance."

So, he is going to combine police, courts, comptroller, and anti corruption departments under one guy? This is some Judge Dredd level sht here.

[igor555]

brazil > china

[Black_Swan]

@Obasanjo

@Black_Swan

What’s so yikes? You have a country with extreme poverty, extreme corruption and extreme violence. In all sincerity they need someone with the ability to institute reform and nobody else was going to do it. Something like 30 of the 50 most violent cities are in Brazil, a quarter of the population never graduates high school, a quarter of murder trials expire under statute of limitations. Place is a literal war zone.

How much of this violence affects everyday Brazilians and how much is confined to the narco soldiers and their turf wars? Which way does the ratio lean?

Listening to Jair and he seems to be ridiculously angry for little reason.

There’s no such thing as having violence restricted to turf wars. These things occur in the poor cities and destroy the populations stuck there. The guy won by a landslide for a reason. This is just such an insanely ignorant POV. Do some reading about the rise in violence and poverty in Brazil over the last two decades.

[Black_Swan]

@Pepper

To recap:

* All polls throughout 2018 show Lula would easily win the presidency

* Judge Moro rushes to convict Lula on dubious charges, preventing him from running

* Bolsonaro wins with Lula in jail

* Moro to get high, powerful position in Bolsonaro’s government

#Justice

The judge who put Lula in prison on a highly dubious conviction, which resulted in Lula’s being barred from running while leading all presidential polls, just got his reward: formally accepted Bolsonaro’s offer to be Justice Minister

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1057976093318266880?s=21

Lula was a corrupt cancer trying to shield himself from prosecution with another run at the presidency. Good riddance.

[ohai]

Giving the job to this Moro guy does cast doubt on the legitimacy of “Operation Carwash”, as it raises a possible political motive for the probe. Furthermore, power concentration in one individual might be conducive to more corruption.

With that being said, I don’t know if anyone can honestly say that the old government organization was effective, or that it can be reformed without strong arm measures like this, as risky as they might be.

[Matt_Likes_Analysis]

^ true capitalism protected by an active domestic military is literally the best case scenario in brazil right now. ideally the active domestic military will not be required if the switch to true capitalism results in much better quality of life for the average brazilian. only real risk is if members within PSL get greedy and start skimming themselves. if the threat of skimming is death, i doubt many will do so blatantly.

[Black_Swan]

@Obasanjo

@Black_Swan

@Obasanjo

@Black_Swan

What’s so yikes? You have a country with extreme poverty, extreme corruption and extreme violence. In all sincerity they need someone with the ability to institute reform and nobody else was going to do it. Something like 30 of the 50 most violent cities are in Brazil, a quarter of the population never graduates high school, a quarter of murder trials expire under statute of limitations. Place is a literal war zone.

How much of this violence affects everyday Brazilians and how much is confined to the narco soldiers and their turf wars? Which way does the ratio lean?

Listening to Jair and he seems to be ridiculously angry for little reason.

There’s no such thing as having violence restricted to turf wars. These things occur in the poor cities and destroy the populations stuck there. The guy won by a landslide for a reason. This is just such an insanely ignorant POV. Do some reading about the rise in violence and poverty in Brazil over the last two decades.

You’ve just made a bunch of assumptions and based an argument on it. If you can prove it fair enough but I’d like to see some numbers

Keep in mind everything you read is translated, filtered through western biases and by the time it reaches you the original message is lost. It would make more sense to pass portugese news articles through Google translate

According to this

https://www.estadao.com.br/infograficos/politica,bolsonaro-vence-em-97-das-cidades-mais-ricas-e-haddad-em-98-das-pobres,935854

Jair lost in all the poor cities and won in the rich ones.

The violence may have spilled over into the local population, the clearing out of favelas for the world cup and Olympics may have pushed the violence into the cities or it could still be localized in a few spots where locals have the good sense to just not go.

Its possible Jair also just won because the opposition was naive, the candidate was seen as taking orders from Lula who was in jail consistently referring Lula in his speeches or maybe Brazilians think Jair is the second coming

I just don’t understand how someone who probably doesn’t even speak portugese is so definite in his statements

Well I’ve got a good sized group of Brazilian friends including three living in Brazil (those three all voted in favor). So this is based partly on talking to them and partly on widely available crime and poverty statistics. I’ve done my reading, I don’t really feel a need to do that for you. It’s incredibly stupid to believe you can have widespread violence with something like 20 if the world’s 50 most violent cities in Brazil and not have it impacting those populations. You also have a 25% high school graduation rate. This violence has been rising for decades, trying to point at the World Cup is also moronic. I can also read spanish (spent a semester doing home stays in Mexico and one in Costa Rico, although I struggle to speak it well anymore), dance salsa and my brother’s wife is from El Salvador not that that has anything to do with anything.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/04/brazil-violence-election-jair-bolosonaro-fernando-haddad

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/19/people-getting-poorer-hunger-homelessness-brazil-crisis

[Black_Swan]

@Obasanjo

So you’re got anecdotal evidence and three cultural ties that have nothing to do with Brazil including one picked up for 25$ a class.

At least the chart is a start. The big jump happens just after Brazil transitioned from a military dictatorship. Is that because independent institutiins started collected better data on a phenomena that already existed or a break down of law and order?

LMAO, let me help you with this because you seem to be struggling. You think western or non-Brazilian sources aren’t as legit and you question anecdotes. So let me give you some statistics, Bolsonaro ran on the exact position I’m stating and the majority of Brazil voted in favor of it. So there you have it straight from Brazil’s mouth. But please, as a non-Brazilian apologist, continue to speculate based on your broad ignorance of the topic. FYI you said I can’t speak spanish, but I can and I do have strong cultural ties to the region. I’m more Brazilian than Elizabeth Warren is Native American.

Now since I have the people on my side. Prove to me that violence didn’t spike in that period and prove to me that it’s not impacting the slums. Also prove to me that the situation is just fine for most of Brazil and that they basically elected a right wing extremist because they don’t understand what’s going on in their own country because so far all you’ve put forward are some liberal arts rambling and excuses.

[Black_Swan]

@Obasanjo

They speak Portuguese not Spanish champ.

I don’t know what’s going on in Brazil and I have the humility to say so rather than cherry picking biased sources to frame the argument

If it is the poor who are affected why did they vote for Haddad?

I’m aware of the national language, but you said I could probably not speak Spanish or Portuguese. I can speak Spanish. Please try to keep up, I know this is hard for you.

Obviously the poor aren’t the only ones effected, that’s a pretty dumb assumption. When your nation struggles everyone struggles. Brazil as a country spoke. Still waiting on that proof, but all I got was a hypothetical. Ah well, sorry for your loss.

I declare victory over Obasanjo!

[elcoelhon]

@Black_Swan

There’s no such thing as having violence restricted to turf wars. These things occur in the poor cities and destroy the populations stuck there. The guy won by a landslide for a reason. This is just such an insanely ignorant POV. Do some reading about the rise in violence and poverty in Brazil over the last two decades.

There was… Brazil has been a violent country for many years. It just happens that most people don’t care as long as it does not affect their lives. In the eyes of many fine Brazilian citizens violence only became problem a after the infamous “2 guys in a motorcycles” started appearing in their neighborhoods. Brazilian logic goes as: 27 murders per weekend on a small sized city is fine, but “2 guys in a motorcycles” coming to the bar to steal my phone… “Save me Bolsonaro!”

Another anecdote of the Brazilian election after 3 Pt presidencies, high unemployment areas still vote majority for pt, it makes no sense

The whole average IQ and destiny of nations theory is spot on…

[Pepper]

My dad can speak better Spanish than your dad

[Black_Swan]

@Pepper

My dad can speak better Spanish than your dad

[Malee]

@Obasanjo

You’ve just made a bunch of assumptions and based an argument on it. If you can prove it fair enough but I’d like to see some numbers

Welcome to the Water Cooler…

[Matt_Likes_Analysis]

i know four brazilian couples here in canada. they all left because they are middle class and see a poor opportunity set in brazil and/or they are capitalists and assumed they’d have a better chance at retaining/creating wealth in canada. they all support bolsonaro for economic reasons. safety was a much lesser issue in the election. human rights was also a much lesser issue. really, people only voted for bolsonaro due to his economic promises. which from an outside pov, will likely ignite economic growth after six years of recession.