It’s definitely a bit worrisome. The output gap that Black Swan posted is not going to be helped by Trump’s tax cuts. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more than expected rate hikes.
No, I worked in subprime in 2002, and started warning it was unsustainable in 2003. Everyone who knew me during those years heard it from me, and slept thru it (just as they do now with USG bankruptcy). I sold everything Q4 '07, and exited fixed income Q1 '08, while the dummies were still trying to figure out WTF was even happening. I then got big bonuses in my new industry, while they got stressed and lost their jobs.
Lesson: competent analysis pays. 
Interesting analysis from Goldman Sachs noted that only in Korean and Vietnam Wars did we see two things happening at same time – interest rates going up and unemployment going down. Wage increases might kick up inflation which would kick up interest rates.
If you get into really short bonds you could avoid, if this scenario comes to pass…
USG will be fine as long as they can wage war. New wars will be declared to spread democracy, the treasury will print the money to fund the wars, and Congress will keep increasing the debt ceiling. #optimism
No one is as smart as you. Just the best.
WOW, purealpha started warning in 2003…You must have a fund of your own rivaling those of Citadel, Apaloosa, two sigma etc…You only pick winners and called the mortgage crisis more than 5 years in advance.
Indeed. Smartest investor ever. Calls everything perfectly. Why can’t we all be like him.
Whatever the market does, you can bet you’ll get a “I shorted (whatever went down) yesterday” or “I went long (whatever shot up) last week”.
If he ever makes a call that is wrong, it’s a “Oh it’s only 0.1% of my account, so I can double down at these prices and ALWAYS make money”. Just the best investor ever.
Just closed out my calls on Winstream Holdings (sold puts) and closed my puts on Atyr Pharma (sold calls). Laughing to the bank today, lol 
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