ahahah Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > When did the story break on bberg? I didn’t see > anything until 10:30. If I was a layoff account, > I would shoot the broker moving those things… > It would take a lot of steak dinners and Wine > Country Gift Baskets to make up for a fiasco like > that… Where do you look for news? I count a full 8 pages (at 20 a page) of headlines on BSC relating to the Fed/JPM action between when the news broke at 9:13 am and 10:30 am.
our traders send it to us. Just going of the time stamp on their stories…
Anyone find a decent link for the conference call that took place today? It’s posted on their site but for some reason it’s not playing for me…is this happening to anyone else?
lehmans stock fell by 13 %…some news article said thats cause their “model was similar to bears and people reacted accordingly” …not sure what model the news artilce referred to…but given that fears are driving the market…we know which BB is next in line…a positive (if at all)- the management at LEH is much superior to that of Bears…
slouiscar Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > some liked this at 100, then at 70, at 50. Hows > 30 feel? Unless you have a confident assessment > at int. value how can you convince yourself to > grab this falling knife. (I think Joey initially > used that phase and it is a perfect fit in this > case so I am going to steal it. So there.) > I didn’t make it up but it is a good expression. > I love that even this week a dozen or so brokers > had a median price target out there flirting w/ > 100. sweet now its a 200+% mover… I guess it is > a no-brainer then. This is one pathetic company.
I heard rumors about BSC solvency problems on Wednesday. Most people thought it wasn’t true, thus it didn’t move much. Obviously somebody disagreed, others saw and followed.
The question is whether they (meaning the Fed or the Govt) will let a firm like BSC collapse. We’ll have a clearer picture of what kind of shape they are in w/ the earnings pre-announcement on Monday (or will we?), but if the situation does not improve, then what will eventually happen? 1) Total collapse 2) Longer term intervention to bail them out 3) BSC gets bought out. 4) Recovery? I’m giving the first option the lowest probability of happening. If it did, there would be a huge flight to quality with spreads widening even more than they already have. Speculation on liquidity problems for other broker dealers will spread and will likely hamper flows like it did for BSC. I really don’t know what to say to the guys at bear right now, I hear it’s depressing as shit. Speaking of which, I’ve seen some pretty crazy weeks, but in this market EVERY week is a crazy.
> > Speaking of which, I’ve seen some pretty crazy > weeks, but in this market EVERY week is a crazy. My team was reading through the Asset Backed Alert, 2 guys in there died recently…
- with Fed help. Bear and DVivre Associates (Ticker: BADASS).
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 3) with Fed help. Bear and DVivre Associates > (Ticker: BADASS). Awesome. Awesome to the max.
Indulging in a bit of schadenfreude, there’s something quite fun about the facts that a) Bear didn’t join the LTCM bailout crew, despite being the clearing agent for LTCM. Now they need help, there’s only the fed available to them b) There’s a nice symmetry to the fact that in June’07, it was bear’s uberleveraged subprime hedge funds that were the first to pop, now they are the first bank to go bust (because they are without govt intervention). Put the bank into run-off, the brand is ruined now.
chrismaths Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Indulging in a bit of schadenfreude, there’s > something quite fun about the facts that > a) Bear didn’t join the LTCM bailout crew, despite > being the clearing agent for LTCM. Now they need > help, there’s only the fed available to them > b) There’s a nice symmetry to the fact that in > June’07, it was bear’s uberleveraged subprime > hedge funds that were the first to pop, now they > are the first bank to go bust (because they are > without govt intervention). > > Put the bank into run-off, the brand is ruined > now. What goes around comes around. I’m sure that there are people at the other BB firms that were just waiting for this day to come. I think BSC’s survival will come down to the Fed’s willingness to pick up the tab completely. The Fed DID let Drexel Burnham collapse, so it’s not completely out of the question (although helping Drexel at that time would have been political suicide).
CNBC says that JPM will probably acquire BSC and that by Monday BSC will not exist.
CFAdummy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > CNBC says that JPM will probably acquire BSC and > that by Monday BSC will not exist. Any speculation as to the acquisition price?
The guest at CNBC said that the price could be anyones guess 
They also said that Jimmy Caine was worth almost 1 billion in BSC stock and now he has 200 mill or less 
Who can even guess? Look at their last 10k (ended nov. 2007)… said they had negative net subprime exposure and ~$120 per share in cash! This is why you can’t own financials and why CFa-hallifax is peeing on his face… you just can’t know wtf is going on with them. Their assets are being written down by the market faster than the accountants can report.
If the bank is insolvent (as it is, ex-government support), then equity holders get… nada. This is what moral hazard is about - if you don’t wipe out the equity (or at least dilute them 1:20), then you just encourage excessive risk taking. Whether it’s Northern Rock or Bear Stearns, it makes no difference. Equity is risk capital. It has got to go. It’s not like no-one warned them to raise new capital.
Reports of JPM and BSC pushing hard for a buyout agreement hitting the tapes. Check WSJ.com or Bloomberg. The combined entity? Bear Chase =)
Does Joe Lewis approve of a 15-20 p/share b/out?