What’s your take on this sports stock market? Think it will work? http://www.reuters.com/article/internetNews/idUSTRE49011A20081001?pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0 OneSeason.com It seems like it will be very illiquid.
So sports betting with a stock market twist. Maybe I’ll look into it once they’ve created a derivatives market.
They already have prediction markets for real money. They should begin to pick up in the next couple of years. www.intrade.com - popular one I am creating one (with a team) at my company to trade on ideas . . . interesting stuff.
I believe you could do the same with far greater liquidity on Betfair.
It’s not a prediction market. The value of a player is based on popularity. There is no measurable outcome, and there is no end.
Howd Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > It’s not a prediction market. The value of a > player is based on popularity. There is no > measurable outcome, and there is no end. I might be missing the point and I’m not sure if there is money involved, but assuming there is, the Betfair equivalent of buying Woods would be something like: At start of season: take 4 long positions of $100 that Woods will win each major During the early season Woods increases in popularity by winning some other tournaments. You then find that the odds on him winning each of the majors has shortened thus increasing the value of your position… your $400 is now worth $450. You still think he offers good value at this price though - he is Woods after all, so you keep your position. Then Woods announces he is injured and will not play the first major. Odds on your first position go very high, your other ones also increasing leaving your position worth $250 overall. At this point, you decide he is overpriced, so you sell your $250 worth (realising a loss) and take a short position with max exposure of $250. Woods then dies in plane crash and you cash in for $250(realising an overall profit of $100) and are subjected to profiteering acusations from the media…This all before the first major has started.
TheBigBean Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Howd Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > It’s not a prediction market. The value of a > > player is based on popularity. There is no > > measurable outcome, and there is no end. > > I might be missing the point and I’m not sure if > there is money involved, but assuming there is, > the Betfair equivalent of buying Woods would be > something like: > > At start of season: take 4 long positions of $100 > that Woods will win each major > > During the early season Woods increases in > popularity by winning some other tournaments. You > then find that the odds on him winning each of the > majors has shortened thus increasing the value of > your position… your $400 is now worth $450. You > still think he offers good value at this price > though - he is Woods after all, so you keep your > position. > > Then Woods announces he is injured and will not > play the first major. Odds on your first position > go very high, your other ones also increasing > leaving your position worth $250 overall. At this > point, you decide he is overpriced, so you sell > your $250 worth (realising a loss) and take a > short position with max exposure of $250. Woods > then dies in plane crash and you cash in for > $250(realising an overall profit of $100) and are > subjected to profiteering acusations from the > media…This all before > the first major has started. Yes money is involved. Intrade and betfair make sense, it is just like any other futures market that is based on some outcome. This sports stock market is different, as it is based on popularity of player, not on a specific event. Basically, it is like sports cards, except instead of a card you get an intangible stock. It also goes on forever, with a stock only ending if it becomes worthless because the player is no longer popular. I just don’t see how this will end up being successful.