Off another hundo for the day. Are you guys making any purchases now?
No.
I might lever up and go long at 3:50p but I am losing SO much faith SO fast in this joke government.
Not low enough yet, there is just too much potential downside right now I think.
yes, in my PA. covering (some) of my shorts. leaving the long SPY 131-128 put spread on, leaving the short XRT 51 Sept calls…looking to reload the short ESU1 @ 1300 ish. this market is a SHORT… also looking for entry to reload on 10 UST year short, and short EUR/USD. Sell a SPY 132-135 call spread on rallies. This is NOT about debt ceiling, look at GDP numbers, unemployment, more layoffs from MRK, CSCO, etc… we have about 15-20% more to give on SPX, then we sit there for 2-3 years. Also look at emerging markets, the ones that was SUPPOSE to save the US economy. Brazil off 20% from highs. Unemployment will reach 11% range soon. it will cost obama the election, eventually the BRICS will save us, just not now.
^ Agree I think we have a bear trap rally if/when we get this debt thing done.
willsucceed Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > yes, in my PA. covering (some) of my shorts. > leaving the long SPY 131-128 put spread on, > leaving the short XRT 51 Sept calls…looking to > reload the short ESU1 @ 1300 ish. this market is > a SHORT… also looking for entry to reload on 10 > UST year short, and short EUR/USD. Sell a SPY > 132-135 call spread on rallies. > > This is NOT about debt ceiling, look at GDP > numbers, unemployment, more layoffs from MRK, > CSCO, etc… we have about 15-20% more to give on > SPX, then we sit there for 2-3 years. Also look > at emerging markets, the ones that was SUPPOSE to > save the US economy. Brazil off 20% from highs. > Unemployment will reach 11% range soon. it will > cost obama the election, eventually the BRICS will > save us, just not now. The GDP number was certainly a slap in the balls. 1.3%…ouch. I think the debt ceiling fiasco has cost us 3-400 points so we may catch a pop to 12.4, but then it’s back to reality.
Question: Buying here? Answer: HE!! NO; everything depends on whether or not a bill is passed. What would be a good reason for buying now?
Yes, buy in. The lemmings have all crowded at the cliff’s edge, most don’t know the hedge is about to be moved.
Hey look, as of 11:30 we’re positive on the day. Good day for day traders. The macro and debt stuff still doesn’t look good though. My guess is there may be a selloff at 3pm, unless there is sudden news out of Congress of a deal. If/when there is a deal, there will likely be a pop upwards, so it’s not unexpected. But a deal will most likely lock in a fiscal contraction and follow-on GDP contraction that people are only just starting to think about.
willsucceed Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > yes, in my PA. covering (some) of my shorts. > leaving the long SPY 131-128 put spread on, > leaving the short XRT 51 Sept calls…looking to > reload the short ESU1 @ 1300 ish. this market is > a SHORT… also looking for entry to reload on 10 > UST year short, and short EUR/USD. Sell a SPY > 132-135 call spread on rallies. > > This is NOT about debt ceiling, look at GDP > numbers, unemployment, more layoffs from MRK, > CSCO, etc… we have about 15-20% more to give on > SPX, then we sit there for 2-3 years. Also look > at emerging markets, the ones that was SUPPOSE to > save the US economy. Brazil off 20% from highs. > Unemployment will reach 11% range soon. it will > cost obama the election, eventually the BRICS will > save us, just not now. While I find some of the prognostications here to be a bit dramatic, I agree with the overall theme that we are facing a number of macro headwinds, only one of which is the debt ceiling matter.
I hate it when people just throw off rises as “short covering,” but this time I think that’s what it is. With the deadline on Tuesday and Congress likely to wrangle all weekend, I wouldn’t want to have open shorts over the weekend and would be busy covering them today.
I am buying some and holding some. It depends on (gasp) price, growth, margins, ROC, outlook…and on and on… Good luck with your macro guesses folks. I will be here for a while so how much do I worry about today’s short coverings? Not much.
goes to eleven Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I am buying some and holding some. It depends on > (gasp) price, growth, margins, ROC, > outlook…and on and on… > > Good luck with your macro guesses folks. I will > be here for a while so how much do I worry about > today’s short coverings? Not much. First, thanks for me wishing me luck. However, I don’t consider them guesses. The numbers that are reported are telling me we got decade high unemployment (that is not getting better), tepid GDP expansion, record food prices, near record energy prices, and an aging population here in the US. We are depending on emerging markets to spur growth here domestically but their markets are weak as well. I am not sure how you can model growth without at least considering the macro environment. Sure if you buy here I suspect the S&P will be higher in 10 years. But how about the next 2-3 years? You could wait and potentially pick up better bargains…that’s me 2 cents. (I am long some equities in my 401k however I did convert to 40% cash and fixed income earlier this week.) I do have a “Trading Account” where the holding periods are minutes, hours, days, weeks and sometimes months…that is where I am trading (index futures, FX, interest rate futures, etc) technicals with stop loss limits.
You can be perfectly right on the company fundamentals, and still be killed by macro events. Fair value depends on what right discount rate is. And macro risks figure into that. If you’re using the historical market return as a measure of expected market returns, then you are underestimating your required return. If you’re benchmarked against the S&P or some other equity index, then fine, do that. If you’re running a market neutral portfolio, then this kind of analysis is fine, just make sure that your correlation assumptions are biased upwards (because they may go to 1 in a panic), and that a sudden increase in borrowing costs is not going to force you to sell. And if you do have to sell suddenly, I suspect that an algorithm that chooses what to sell at random may actually be the best one.
Yeah, I was being a bit cheeky. I am not completely macro agnostic, but blanket questions “Are you buying?” and blanket “No way, we still have a ways to go” always kind of cracked me up. I realize macro events can affect my growth, WACC, etc. I take that into consideration in my models, but I won’t let it drive my decision based on one week of weakness (week of weakness?). The time is right when the price reaches my buy target that has been decided on multiple factors and quite a bit of work. I am a pretty boring guy: I like quality, I buy companies with a simple business model, identifiable cash flow, been around for a while. Good companies; attractive prices. Yawn. Unfortunately, I wish more people agreed with me. Especially institutional consultants who hate long U.S. equities now. Our small cap performance has been great - new business not so much.
Bought enough SH to make my portfolio Beta Neutral today. I do have a few nice dividend yielding things in my portfolio which I’d like to keep for even higher yields if the market goes down this weekend. So I figured I’d keep them, but bring the beta of my portfolio to near zero. You made me think about it from the company fundamentals part, goes_to_eleven, so thanks! (I think. 
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I’m short. Market is weak. Its done.
ASSet_MANagement Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ^ Agree > > I think we have a bear trap rally if/when we get > this debt thing done. I’ve been hearing bear trap since March 2009.
So who were the people that listened to iteracom’s advise and lost money? Now way I’m getting in unless it’s fixed income like exchange traded senior notes.