Calling the bottom in 2008

People here on AF have been calling the market bottom ever since August. Does anyone think the equity market will go down further? Seems to me the people calling the bottom last week (Dow 7773) are correct so far and that will be the low for the year. However, my guess is when the new administration takes office in January, they will take the opportunity to clean house and air out more bad news. We might go even lower then. Also at that time, the recession will be officially ‘confirmed’ as GDP will have slowed in 2 consecutive quarters. The worse may be behind us, but there’s still more pain ahead. What do you think?

boom bitty boom boom…more pain to come

shoot him

I think he is mistaken. At ~ 7800 the Market was already factoring a MAJOR MAJOR recession. When it turns out to be more moderate than everyone fears, you could easily easily see the industrials back at 12 grand. Thats the beauty of the stock market, its a leading economic indicator. Willy

Agreed WillyR. Plus, the elections in November may be the catalyst that is needed to get things started again.

Although the market’s dropped 350pts today, I don’t think we will drop further than the low of the year (Dow 7773) established a couple weeks ago, at least not this year.

Does anybody else see the symmetrical triangle chart pattern we’re in? It appears the apex will be within the next couple of days. All the indices are testing the support right now…

Well I don’t know about the catalyst comment either. You see, BO will probably indeed win, and if he does not, then JMc will win. The point is, I suspect the overwhelming majority [not simply the first 1 or 2 quarters] of 2009 as I had originally thought will be plagued by sideways trading and we won’t really get into the next leg of the bull market, driven by the secular bull run in commodities until Jan 2010. My two cents. Willy

Once people are tired of trying to call the bottom… that will be the bottom. Which I expect will be late December, as people will be too focused with how little money they have to spend on Christmas.

I think the real question is when will the bulls come back and for that I’m saying - again - when the BKX banking sub-index outperforms the broader S&P500 for - say - 3 weeks or more. Willy