US$ has been depretiating against CAN$ for a while now. But looking at performance of TSX and S&P, I have to ask this question: TSX has been underperforming the S&P, doesn’t it indicate that the CAN$ should depretiate??
(I am a Canadian investing in US equities)
No, there are a number of factors which influence the relative strength of currencies against each other, stock market performance is not one of them.
The first of which is the targeted overnight rate, (interest rates) the overnght rate is higher in canada then the united states whcih draws in investment into BoC securities, since they are purchased in CAD this increases price/demand for CAD relative to USD.
Anticipated relative economic performance; Canada did not get as clobbered as the United States in the latest recession, our recovery occured faster and there is strong demand for our commodity exports which all have a positive impact on our currency’s value relative to USD.
The biggest driver is our commodity exports, we are huge global supplier of base and precious metals as well as energy, all of these commodities have seen huge price increases while other sectors of the economy have underperformed. It is the demand for these goods that are strongly correlated to our currency value, AUD’s currency has been affected in the same way. While we have had a great run since the lows in 08 and the S&P is dominated by resource extraction firms their stock price appreciation has evened off. Strong exports do not necessairly contribute to broadbased appreciation in the markets especially on the s&p, there are some juniors on the venture that are killing it but I’ll leave that up to mattlikesanalysis to discuss, he’s the man when it comes to those securities.