R28, Captial Sufficiency Analysis, Pg. 191/192
In Exhibit 3 and Example 5, in the Monte Carlo simulation results why do the 5/25/50th percentile portfolio values decrease from year 10 to year 20? Shouldn’t they be going up just like the 75th/95th percentile that’s going negative?
This also makes the successful trial percentage number go down. I mean, if there’s 98% chance of achieving the objective in year 10, why will I gamble and stay invested for 20 years if the chance goes down to 69%?