Question 3 asking for psychological trap for Hyatt…overconfidence trap can be one of it.
Nultione -
- uses evidence of 3 analysts who agree with his optimistic forecast - confirming evidence
- Nultione remembers similar conditions several years ago when his forecast was too pessimistic and he missed a significant buying opportunity. He does not want to miss another market low. - Recallability Trap
- Nultione proposes a large increase in EA’s portfolio allocation to U.S. equities, which will move his position from underweight to overweight.- Overconfidence trap
Hyatt
- presented with evidence that variables have changed - but still sticks with forecast - Anchoring trap
- Hyatt believes the recent downward trend in the market will continue, and any gains from restructuring EA’s portfolio allocation would not be worth the risk of relative underperformance. - Status Quo
- Hyatt believes that Nultione’s proposed portfolio allocation could result in a significant underperformance of EA’s portfolio compared to its peers. Hyatt believes such underperformance could harm his own position at the firm. - Prudence (not worth changing the forecast).
Why is status quo an answer but conservatism is not?
Psychological traps = ASCORP
- A-Anchoring
- S=Status Quo
- C=Confirming Evidence
- O = Overconfidence
- R=Recallability
- P=Prudence
Conservatism is one of the behavioral Cognitive biases, not a Psychological trap…
Yes it is insane
So in pre-2012 parlance, psychological traps = information processing biases?
no.
psychological trap is coming from the CME chapter. not the behavioral finance material per se.
and these are the 6 that are mentioned there.
and the question clearly identifies as “which psychological” traps …
Oh! I better go back and reread CME.
Nice catch cpk on the ‘psychological’ keyword…that is a good thing to look for.
A couple other things I’ve noticed in the morning exams.
-
the ‘true’ behavioral finance material is typically tested in the individual IPS questions. CME bias are either tested seperately (like in 2007) or with other CME material.
-
several of the biases are the same, but with slightly different names (i.e. Availability / Recallability). For what it is worth, Schweser says you can use these interchangably when writing your answers.
So we have more distinction here
1) Psychological Traps -
ASCORP (Anchoring, Status quo, Confirming evidence, Overconfidence, Recallability, Prudence)
2) Emotional Biases -
LOSSSER
(Loss aversion, Overconfidence, Status Quo, Self-attribution, Self-Control, Endowment, Regret Aversion)
3) Cognitive Error
CFA-CA-HRCM
CFA (Confirmation, Framing, Anchoring & Adjustment)
CA (Conservatism, Availability
HRCM - (Hindsight, Representative, Control, Mental accounting)
or
HCCR - FAMA
HCCR - All cognitive belief preseverance - (Hindsight, Confirmation, Conservatism, Representativeness)
FAMA - All cognitive information processing - (Framing, Anchoring & Adjustment, Mental Accounting, Availability)
Many overlaps…really tough to discern…that too during the exam time…@$!
Dumb question but what does CME stand for and where in the book is it? Thanks
CME is Capital Market Expectations…
I would look for what the market participant is . If individual , then emotional or cognitive . If analyst then could be the CME related stuff . If committee then could be first type again
Can u please throw some more lights on this…
CPK et. al – I reviewed the CME book last week and actually was wondering if they changed this chapter for 2012, given the extensive changes to the Behavioral Finance section. I would look myself but last I checked the finquiz side by side was down and i didn’t print it.
Thanks in advance.
The CME chapter did not change from last year.