Looks like things are starting to get a bit axious over there? Willy
Your posts on here kill me !!!
Why is that Drs? Willy
Probably not until a little bit after the Olympics. I say 2009 or 2010 is going to be a shit-storm for China.
I just got back from Shanghai. Everything was under construction. Stuff that was finished, was already broken. Many buildings were unoccupied. I felt like it was an olympics scam but they’ve already started touting the 2010 world expo and the people over there certainly aren’t afraid to work hard for very little money. I got a 2.5 hour massage for $13.50. The french food was excellent. Does anybody want me to post pictures?
Was that $13.50 for a happy ending or no? Do they have doubles? Willy
Call me an agnostic on China. That’s still one big government controlled entity, which is changing fast. But is this latest folly in the Chinese Financial System a sign that governments perhaps do know best or that capitalism is a more volatile ride to a better way? Willy
No happy ending, i’m happily married.
Riight. What’s the rumor? That 67% of online dating ads are by married peeps? Willy
I think there is a larger-than-anticipated probability that things could all go to hell in China before the Olympics, principally because most investors are in agreement on two things: 1) That China’s growth story, while real, is frothy, currently overpriced, and long due for a pullback, and 2) The pullback can’t possibly happen before the Olympics, because the government won’t let it. I think this sets the stage for people massively overinvesting in China because they think it’s safe until summer, which is likely to drive prices higher and make them even more jittery. Then, a medium correction sometime in early 2Q 2008 sends people into panic, and wham-o, the thing collapses faster than anyone would expect. Now, I’m sure China will be happy to use the army to quell any unrest in the countryside, and use money and subsidies to quell unrest in the cities temporarily, in order to have the Olympics be peaceful, but I’m not sure this will save investors.
Over the last few weeks I have read a number of articles in respected publications (Financial Post etc) that indicate that there will be a 40% downward revision in per capita Chinese GDP and growth rate due to poor samples and poor information that extrapolate urban economic growth in the largest cities into the rest of the country. These new estimates also indicate that the number of Chinese living on less than 1 USD per day will tripple to 300 Million and that Chinese purchacing power will not overatke US purchacing power until the middle of this centruty instead of 2015 as previously predicted based on old data… Anyone else read anything on this?
CCM… do you have a link?
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I think there is a larger-than-anticipated > probability that things could all go to hell in > China before the Olympics, principally because > most investors are in agreement on two things: > > 1) That China’s growth story, while real, is > frothy, currently overpriced, and long due for a > pullback, and > 2) The pullback can’t possibly happen before the > Olympics, because the government won’t let it. > > I think this sets the stage for people massively > overinvesting in China because they think it’s > safe until summer, which is likely to drive prices > higher and make them even more jittery. > > Then, a medium correction sometime in early 2Q > 2008 sends people into panic, and wham-o, the > thing collapses faster than anyone would expect. > > Now, I’m sure China will be happy to use the army > to quell any unrest in the countryside, and use > money and subsidies to quell unrest in the cities > temporarily, in order to have the Olympics be > peaceful, but I’m not sure this will save > investors. Chinese people are so used to the government running everything, they believe that the government is in control of everything too. People in China have a different mentality. The Russians probably have the same mentality.
Will, The link to a recent article that covers soem of the material. www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071212.wreynolds12/GIStory/
Sorry dark helmut I looked at Willys post last.
that 40% revision has to do with how they calculate growth, through PPP or through market exchange rates. in any case, china is doing the right thing. most industrialized nations started with significant government support i.e Japan, Germany, US. though china might have even greater government influence, i think what they’re doing for their country is the best thing. free markets don’t really exist so why would the chinese play the game as if. china’s economy will not go to hell. if you look at the fundamentals, they’re solid. the chinese stock market is another matter though but the capital markets don’t play as big a role in china as it does in other developed countries. china is fine, but they problalby won’t win the most medals. 13.50 ha. so even a guy that works at DB can get a piece of that. of course no happy ending though. mayweather is king. mayweather’s stock is up 150% since last saturday. p4p.
Well, the government claims the *right* to run everything, but it doesn’t actually run everything. There is massive corruption in the countryside, and even the one-child policy, when it was enforced, was not fully enforceable outside the cities. The government may try to run everything, but it has fairly blunt instruments for actually doing so. Let’s suppose there is a panic and people start selling Chinese assets, and you get a correction. There’s a big risk that this will snowball, especially as the Olympics get closer. What can the government do? 1) Close the exchanges - that will basically freeze any additional capital from coming in, and any capital that is already there will want to fly out the moment exchanges are opened up again. There may be a tertiary market formed where chinese securities end up being rolled up into ABS stuff, but that is likely to be a mess. 2) Buy their own assets with the Trillion dollars of reserves they are sitting on, in order to prop up the price. If I saw the government artificially inflating prices like that, I’d be selling right now, because it can’t go on forever (though with a trillion dollars, it could probably go on a long time). 3) Let the Yuan appreciate, maybe? This would reassure foreign investors because the equity hit would be made up - somewhat, by currency appreciation. However, in any real crisis, this is likely to make up for small correction, not a big one. I’m not saying that a big crash is definitely going to happen before the Olympics. I’m just saying that I see the situation as being a lot more possible than most people are saying.
mayweather should retire.
turkish, you can’t hate on mayweather. allow him to make you some money. he is a safer bet then most hedge funds. the market was irrational. on fight night, his odds went to 1.57 which was ridiculous. This was becasue the Brits had bet over 20m on ricky. irrational. “there’s only onnnnnnneeeee mayyyyweather”.
Frank, artificially low currency + empty office towers + inflation + massive stock market speculation + centralized control = Disaster, just ask the Japanese.