China

anyone investing in China yet?

bump

I made absurd bank on China/South Korea in 2006-2007 and took all the profits late in the year before the decline, amazing to see stuff like FXI at $25. China is a great nation, and really they are the future. If I had spare $$$ (which I don’t) I’d think about buying back in at these prices.

purealpha Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I made absurd bank on China/South Korea in > 2006-2007 and took all the profits late in the > year before the decline, amazing to see stuff like > FXI at $25. China is a great nation, and really > they are the future. If I had spare $$$ (which I > don’t) I’d think about buying back in at these > prices. Agree. Think I’m going to get my feet wet with these prices. What do you think about a currency trade… short USD/long yen?

What do you think about short USD long Chinese Yuan? At some point they could fully lift their subsidation of a low exchange rate and you could see some serious appreciation. ^ | | Is the above statement correct, or am I off base, I honestly know very little about currency markets.

Black Swan Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What do you think about short USD long Chinese > Yuan? > > At some point they could fully lift their > subsidation of a low exchange rate and you could > see some serious appreciation. > ^ > | > | > Is the above statement correct, or am I off base, > I honestly know very little about currency > markets. Interesting. I guess it just depends on which currency you think is poised for the strongest move (Yuan or Yen).

black swan, your comments were the consensus view of the currency markets for the last 4 years. Now however the game has changed. China is makes noises that they are happy to let their currency weaken a little to help their flagging export driven economy. So there has been a stampede out of this trade over the last few months and particularly today. The yen trades as a safe haven currency. If you believe things are set to get worse economically than the market thinks then long yen is your trade (I am long yen) . But bear in mind it has already appreciated 20% this year and about 30% from the 2007 high

chicagofx Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > black swan, your comments were the consensus view > of the currency markets for the last 4 years. Now > however the game has changed. China is makes > noises that they are happy to let their currency > weaken a little to help their flagging export > driven economy. So there has been a stampede out > of this trade over the last few months and > particularly today. > > The yen trades as a safe haven currency. If you > believe things are set to get worse economically > than the market thinks then long yen is your trade > (I am long yen) . But bear in mind it has already > appreciated 20% this year and about 30% from the > 2007 high It has appreciated but there is no way it weakens against the dollar going forward.

Chinese gov’t may need to devalue its currency to boost xport. The global recession is killing its xports.

Chinese currency just depreciated 0.4% over night, the biggest move since 2005.

bidu!!!