CITI: The Economy Has Entered Its Scary 'Phase 3' Where Bubbles Form Prior To A Crash

interesting topic to discuss. cvm got me hooked on yahoo finance lol

^ Respect. Rest assured Yahoo Finance is where the majority of muppets get their info. You gotta follow the wisdom/wizdumb of crowds. Though Twitter has a close 2nd following as evidenced by Bromion.

[original post removed]

I completely agree that we are in phase 3. I don’t know how far we’re into it but it’s here and there will be a material correction coming out of this mess.

  • Small caps, which are usually the canary in the coal mine, are at an all time high median valuation and let me tell you it feels like that from a stock picker’s perspective. This sh-t is cray.

  • Capex cycles for a lot of companies I look at are in full swing and overcapacity is coming to an industry near you. There is a lot of “me too” going on right now.

  • The risk appetite in the IPO and SEO markets is as high as I have seen it since 2007. There are in some cases companies that are worth 75% less than what they are valued at (or in some cases literally worthless) who are raising 8 and 9 figure sums of capital with ease. I only look at small caps but there are probably lots of bad billion dollar deals going on now too.

  • The retail investor is back big time and FOMO is king these days.

I don’t know when it ends. It feels like we are near the top and in a holding pattern. I don’t know what can send the market a lot higher than here because everything that can go right is already going right. The question is what do you do about it? If I had a book today I’d be running it close to net neutral and would be tempted to even go net short.

As long as you don’t use the Yahoo Finance message board.

I read it sometimes but don’t post. Holy sh-t there is some funny stuff on there at times.

I’ve been told by someone who engages in the purchase of a lot of syndicated loans that the underwriting has been loosening. He stated he hasn’t been able to find many attractive loans anymore, they are all crazy stuff that makes him nervous lol

Stabiility in mid east/russia and futher employment gains can be positive catalyst.

IPOs today are actually valid vs .com boom (some of them), with real revenues and product ideas. We might hit recession, but a total crash like in 08/01? Not sure

Did you read all of that on the internet?


I believe it’s “internets” as W would say.

No… i just read how small caps stocks are overvalued and how can i make a killing shorting bankrupt company.

Also, i stayed at Holiday Inn last night