Clean Energy Thread

Hello, you beautiful people.

I was hoping to exchange on *anything* related to clean energies, from how much solar stocks are in the shitter, to how wood prices are through the roof because of biomass.

I am going to start with something: what do you think is going to happen with the global solar industry? Is anybody here going long on specific solar stocks ?

Key to remember is that solar stocks are prone to getting pwned by other solar stocks if another company has a better technology.

IMHO, the way to making money off solar energy is to own the utility/land that is going to be used to collect solar rays.

I think you will have difficulties finding pure solar play utility companies in the US as most energy companies/utilities likely use other energy resources as well - natural gas, coal, wind, etc. NRG has been making big investments in solar energy, but still also generates more than 50% of their generations from natural gas/coal, if I remember correctly.

You are right, of course.

  • On your first point: the industry is in its early stages and quite distressed and fragmented.

I think at this point it is certain that most of the “established” companies will cease to exist as we know them within 5 years.

Most of them are just going to file for bankruptcy and liquidate their assets. The minority of promising ones with interesting patents are going to be acquired by bigger ones / merge. Give it another 5 years, and I think that the industry is going to further consolidate and be dominated by just a few solar giants, with at least a couple of these giants owned by monsters of the likes of GE or Siemens, even by oil conglomerates like BP.

I think it is too dangerous to try to find the companies with the patents who will make history. I would say that a safer bet would be to go with the companies who have the financial ressources / are likely to start consolidating. Still a very dangerous bet. If I had to invest, my best guess would be to be a total *ussy an buy GE or Siemens already.

  • On your second point : totally agree. Although it seems that most of the stocks of companies that don’t produce solar modules but that are also related to the solar industry are also getting hammered.

*EDIT: I forgot to comment on what you wrote concerning the companies that own the land. From what I have seen, land is not sold in a solar project. It is usually land that is owned by municipalities/ occupied by farmers and rented out for like 25 years. That land is usually not used for other purposes and is just “sitting there”, if you will.