Confidence Has Dropped from 100% to 0%

Anyone else dealing with this? I felt real good leaving the exam but last night I had nightmares of receiving the We regret to inform you… e-mail that I am now sure I will open on Tuesday morning. It sucks knowing everything is beyond my control, with perhaps the exception of some type of animal sacrifice to appease the CFA gods in Charlottesville! It’s bad enough they decided to play just the tip with us a few weeks ago, but now the anxiety is just killing me.

Kreese: Sweep the leg. [Johnny stares at him in shock] Kreese: Do you have a problem with that? Johnny Lawrence: No, Sensei. Kreese: No mercy. #NoMercy

55% AM 70% PM pass me maybe?

I’ve gone from giving myself a 30% chance of passing to a 0.01% chance of passing. Guess I’ll find out Tuesday

based on my observations, people in this forum are smart… so i’d say chance of each of you passing is >70%

Are you referring to the same people on this very same forum that got seriously trolled by an error message?

I’ve gone back and forth too. Earlier, I had a certain confidence just because I knew I had studied hard, taken many mocks, and thought I walked away being able to identify instances where I felt like the CFAI was being a little tricky. (To me, that last part is crucial, because otherwise walking away feeling “good” could just mean those tricks were overlooked)

Lately, I wonder how certain sections went. Some were just plain confusing. I practiced as hard as I could on ethics, but even practice questions occasionally leave me wondering if there was more than one way to interpret the question. I’m always a little unnerved by this, because it’s a swing factor in the scoring.

I really really hope I passed so that I don’t have to study again. If I don’t, my view is that I know this was my best study attempt compared to Level 1 and 2, so I won’t be hard on myself. I will be disappointed, but not hard on myself. If I don’t pass, I’ll just be focused on getting ready for next year. If I do pass, I’m not sure what I’ll do - maybe I’ll go eat something nice. (How about a double cheese pizza with hot sauce? So much cholesterol, fat, carbs, nearly no protein, and all sent straight from the heavens)

Sorry I’m not of help to the original poster, but it is a rough time. I am on this forum too much lately in anticipation of results. Tuesday can’t come fast enough for these results. Tuesday morning is going to be the roughest yet… I likely will not get anything done at work.

Double cheese pizza is packed with protein!

Worst part is that when using Gmail, you can’t even prepare yourself because either “Congratulations” or “Regret” will be in the subject line.

My confidence has gone down as well, I suffered from toothache(worst pain) 2 days before the exam and was ailing throughout(had to get my tooth removed afterwards).

I can only remember the pain that i had on the exam day, rest is forgotten. Not able to recollect a single answer(besides the fact that i left 7 points blank in the am). It would be a miracle(would be undeserved as well) if i pass.

Thanks, that put a smile on this old karate man’s face… Cobra Kai Never Die!

My confidence has dropped from 90% to 50%, mainly because of reading this forum. Too many times I’ve seen people discuss aspects of the exam that I never even noticed myself. This makes me feel like those people were thinking on a higher level, and I was just operating in a simplistic way.

The 50% hope I still cling onto is the feeling that I must have done better this year than last year. Last year I was band 10.

= > No one should be failed only on basis of ethics questions asked this year.

= > Other than that, in my opinion there were quite few tricks in morning and in evening (in calculations containing questions). The comfort comes from the idea that, we will get partial credit in morning any way so not a huge issue. In evening, I had seen probably all of those tricks in Schweser sample exams.

= > Reading this forum too much, kills the confidence any way.

= > Always thought that behavorial finance was a “non-topic” untill i saw almost all of us (on this forum) falling for “error” thingy. I suggest CFAi should include this in next year curriculum. :slight_smile:

I have good news guys. The degree to which your confidence deteriorates in the days leading up to Tuesday will have zero impact on your results. I have also experienced some flashes of self-doubt after reading some of the posts in this forum, but I think that is natural consequence for a few reasons:

  1. The temporary early release of Level III scores by CFAI and the mass speculation about the error messages has added an additional layer of perceived uncertainty and anxiety for many candidates that were trying to keep the impending release date out of mind as much as possible.

  2. Test-takers tend to forget the parts of an exam that came natural or were relatively easy and are haunted by a few difficult or tricky questions that tripped them up. There are many general posts about these tricky or unclear questions on AF, leading some candidates to reach the conclusion that there were many more trick questions than they originally realized on exam day. (Everyone has different backgrounds, spent varying amounts of time studying, emphasized different subjects, and used different materials and mock exams to prepare. What was a trick question for one person could have been an easily recognizable answer for another.)

  3. The vast majority of posts on AF are skewed toward the negative side of the spectrum. Candidates come here to vent and to relate with others that are experiencing the same types of feelings. You may have noticed that anyone who says that they are very confident that they passed is usually discredited. Everyone has an ego, and its understandably cringe-worthy when someone says that a given section was easy for them when you remember leaving X points blank, but we all need to focus on our own individual efforts in preparation and execution on exam day and not anchor our expectations based on the posts of others when we dont have a reference point for how much they truely studied or how effective of a study program they implemented.

If you want to determine how confident you should be in an objective manner, remove all consideration of how you’ve felt recently after reading posts on AF, because any increase or decrease in confidence you received from reading others’ posts is artifical and emotion-based. Think back to exam day, remember what you projected your score to be, and subtract a few percent for good measure. Compare your projection to the MPS, and there you have it. If it’s too close for comfort, consume yourself with work or a project, read a book or two, get away for the weekend, drink alcohol, sleep every waking hour, do whatever it takes to get through it, but don’t read the worrisome thoughts of others and expect to find any reassurance.

Good luck!




well said ConvexPayoff

Same here.finger crossed

It’s also a matter of CYA. You don’t want to come across as the imbecile who came in here a couple of days before results day, touting how well you did, only to find out that you failed. Now how embarassing would it be to receive punative comments from a an anonymous mass of internet users? For most people the logical thing to do is to demean themselves in the time leading up to results day to hopefully rise like the phoenix from the ashes when receiving a pass or taking a “told you so” stance when receiving a fail.

^+10 TRUTH

eh wouldnt bother me none. anyone ask me. i always say its a pass. if i fail. welp guess thats why i failed. if i pass. i knew from the beggining. manifest destiny.