Confidence intervals: std error and 1-2 tailed issues

Hi,

I have a quick question as I am (unfortunately) struggling with confidence intervals…I have 2 issues:

  1. I am not sure when to use the standard deviation or the standard error in the calculation (ie dividing the std dev by √ of N or not). Could someone help please?

  2. I am not sure which reliability factor I should use depending on 1 tailed or 2 tailed questions… If I want a level of confidence of 95% on a 1 tailed problematic (ie a figure not above a certain level for instance); should I use a reliability factor of 1.96 (5%) or 1.65 (10%/2) given that it is only on 1 tail?

I know it probably looks dumb but I am having issues understanding that… Thanks for your help all.

Best,

Guillaume

1 Like

Please help!

1 Like

Answers as below :slight_smile:

  1. Use Std. Error when dealing with Sample. Use Std. Dev(of population if population is given . If not sample std. Dev. will do) when dealing with population

  2. Have not understood your qs . Have you checked if the sample size is >30 and the distribution is normal or not?

Thanks for the answer, very kind! Actually I don’t how to phrase it differently for point 2!!

With all due respect, this isn’t correct.

You use the standard deviation when you’re creating a confidence interval for a single observation (e.g., next month’s return on a fixed income ETF).

You use standard error when you’re creating a confidence interval for the mean of a group of observations (e.g., the average monthly return on a fixed income ETF over the next year).

If you think of a single observation as the mean of a sample of size n = 1, then you can always use standard error and save yourself some grief.

Bill, Not sure what you meant. Though I get the single observation ( which to me is the population ) vs. mean of observations. Both being a month return of the Fixed income ETF( which to me are the samples)

What am I missing here ?

Suppose that you’re given 5 years of monthly returns and you calculate that the average monthly return is 0.6% with a standard deviation of 0.4%.

A 95% confidence interval for next month’s return is:

\left[0.6\% - 1.96\left(0.4\%\right),0.6\% + 1.96\left(0.4\%\right)\right] = \left[-0.184\%, +1.384\%\right]

A 95% confidence interval for the average monthly return over the next year is:

\left[0.6\% - 1.96\left(\frac{0.4\%}{\sqrt{12}}\right),0.6\% + 1.96\left(\frac{0.4\%}{\sqrt{12}}\right)\right] = \left[0.374\%, 0.826\%\right]

A 95% confidence interval for the population mean monthly return is:

\left[0.6\% - 1.96\left(\frac{0.4\%}{\sqrt{60}}\right),0.6\% + 1.96\left(\frac{0.4\%}{\sqrt{60}}\right)\right] = \left[0.499\%, 0.701\%\right]

Thanks Bill.

The way I look at it samples have standard error( because of sampling error). Hence the sample standard deviation must be more than the underlying true population.( population typically have no sampling error)

And since there can only be 1 population out of the n no of samples hence I alway used to consider N=1( if pop std. Dev given) or N=Total no. Of data points (if sample std. Dev given).
In a way, you and I said the same thing - I believe.

Though if not correct , you may kindly help.
Thanks.

For the first question,
Suppose you are managing a portfolio of stocks. You want to see how well your portfolio performs using historical data, and one way to measure such performance is by calculating the average expected return on the portfolio. There are different definitions of average, but this will not matter here. The point is that this calculation will give you one, definite number. You quickly realize, however, that this number might not be a good indicator of performance because of market fluctuations. There is randomness in the data which you can’t avoid by taking a simple average. Instead, you want to get an interval - a confidence interval - for which you are pretty confident it contains the true value of the mean. Usually, finding a confidence interval is difficult, but in the case of stock returns, people often make the simplifying assumptions that the stock returns are independent and that they follow a normal distribution. This allows you to use the existing knowledge of standard normal distribution to find the confidence interval you need.

Any statistic textbook will give the confidence interval for the mean of a normally distributed data as

sample_mean ± Z _{\alpha/2}* \sigma/\sqrt(n)

where
\sigma is the population standard deviation of the stock return;
Z _{\alpha/2} is the critical Z value, which can be found on a Z-table;
and n is the number of observations (the number of stock returns you observe).

the quantity to the right of the critical value for Z is the “standard error”
that is, standard error = \sigma/\sqrt(n)
as Bill noted above, when n = 1, this reduces to
standard error = \sigma

technically, if you don’t know the population standard deviation, you need to use the unbiased sample standard deviation and a t-distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom, but I don’t think this is common, at least for exam purposes.

Z _{\alpha/2}, the critical Z value, is the inverse of the normal cumulative distribution function
evaluated at 1 - \alpha/2. Translation: It’s the area under the standard normal distribution curve from the left all the way to the right until x = Z _{\alpha/2}. Remember that a standard normal distribution is a bell-shaped curve, symmetric around its mean, has mean of 0 and a variance of 1.
For example, when you are calculating a 90% confidence interval,
p = .90 (to avoid confusion: this is not the p-value),
\alpha = 1 - p = 1 - .90 = .10
1 - \alpha/2 = 1 - .10/2 = 1 - .05 = .95
and Z _{\alpha/2} = inverseN(.95) = 1.64485

The reason you take \alpha/2 and not \alpha is because when you calculate a confidence interval, you slice the standard normal distribution intro three parts - the left tail, your confidence interval, and the right tail. Both tails have each an area of \alpha/2 (they are symmetric around the mean of zero), so that combined the tails have an area of \alpha, and your confidence interval has an area of 1 - \alpha.

Another way of finding Z _{\alpha/2} is by using a Z-table. You need to find the z-value that corresponds to a probability of 95%. You might not actually see the probability of exactly 95% in the Z table, in which case you have to use the average of the two closest values as an approximation.

==============================================================================

The second question pertains to the use of one or two-tailed tests when making a hypothesis test. That is, when is a one or two-tailed test appropriate? There is also confusion on whether to use a significance level of \alpha or \alpha/2.

For any hypothesis test, you always start with a null hypothesis, denoted H_0, where you hypothesize that some quantity you want to test is equal to some given value. You must only use the equal (=) sign for the null hypothesis.

For example,
H_0: \mu = 25.5

The alternative hypothesis is often denoted H_1 and represents a different hypothesis from the null. You must only use the unequal (=/=), less than (<), or greater than (>) sign for the alternative hypothesis.

For example,
H_1: \mu =/= 25.5, or
H_1: \mu < 25.5, or
H_1: \mu > 25.5

A statistics book I’m using makes a fairly simple and easy rule of thumb to remember:
if the alternative hypothesis uses the unequal (=/=) sign, use the two-tailed test;
if the alternative hypothesis uses the less than(<) sign, use the left-tailed test;
finally, if the alternative hypothesis uses the larger than (>) sign, use the right-tailed test

The significance level, \alpha, is the area in the tail of the distribution.
If you are making a left or right-tailed test, the area under the tail is \alpha. If you are making a two-tailed test, the area under BOTH tails is \alpha. Note that because the tails are symmetric, they each have an area of \alpha/2. So for example, when you choose a value of \alpha = .05, you use this value when making a left or right-tailed test, but use .05/2 = .025 when making a two-tailed test.
When \alpha is .05, you use a critical value for Z of inverseN(1 - .05) = inverseN(.95) = 1.64485 (or about 1.645 if you use a Z-table) when making a left or right-tailed test. Because the standard normal distribution is symmetric around the mean of 0, you use -1.64485 for a left-tailed test and +1.64485 for a right-tailed test.

For a two-tailed test, you must use a critical value of
Z = inverseN(1 - .05/2) = inverseN(.975) = 1.95996 (if you use a Z-table, you’ll get a value of 1.96). For a two-tailed test, you must use two critical values - in this case, Z_{left} = -1.95996 and Z_{right} = +1.95996

hopefully this answers your question. :slightly_smiling_face:

1 Like

I prefer the term bias-adjusted sample standard deviation.

The reason I prefer it is that it explicitly reminds the candidate that they need to make an adjustment in the calculation of the standard deviation: dividing by n − 1 instead of dividing by n.

1 Like

Thanks to all for those elements. I will definitely need to digest them! This is clearly not my forte