Question: How can you adjust the core capital calculation for the capital gains tax that will be owed as someone liquidates their portfolio to pay for living expenses? Also, if I use the Social Security Administration mortality tables the joint survival probability is still around 75% for a 110 year old male and 106 year old female (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html), so the core capital needed is very high. Is there a better mortality table to use or am I calculating joint survival probability incorrectly? Thank you for your thoughts on these questions!
If you are trying to figure out the probability both are alive after one year, that figure is (1-0.577)*(1-0.437) , which is approximately 0.24.
Hi Breadmaker. The equation in the textbook is: p(survival = p(Husband survives) + p(Wife survives) - p(Husband survives) x p(Wife survives)
This would make the joint probability: (1-.557)+(1-.437) - (1-.557) x (1-.437) = .443 + .563 - .443 x .563 = .443 + .563 - .249 = .757 = 75.7%
Am I missing something here?
[Core Capital equation on page 11](file:///C:/Users/mtide/Downloads/CFA%20Estate%20Planning%20Refresher%20(4).pdf)
What you have here is the probability that at least 1 of them is alive.
Thanks for confirming the equation. The core capital calculation requires joint probability of survival, since most people want to know how much money they’ll need for both spouses’ lifetimes. Perhaps there is a better mortality table to use than this one?: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html