Anyone think this wont be the case? I am guessing they will be which is why I am trying to get HRP Jan 5 calls…hoping to see a drop to .4 or less, but couldnt get it filled today.
I don’t know about “won’t be the case”, but I’ll go with “high probability it won’t be unclogged by 1/5/2009”. I don’t see the mechanism to get it unclogged and I see a decent probability of credit events that make it worse. Despite the markets non-response to the low pricing of LEH CDS, I still think the CDS counterparty thing is hanging out there in a frightening way. I think the govt’s attempts to fix this [edit: This Debacle] just keep messing it up (there was a great article on Forbes about how each bailout has contained an anti-bailout). There is an amazing web of interconnected problems and as any one thing gets worse, it causes other things to get worse. How are you going to fix this problem in a few months?