Little confused about something. Question 3c asks what the roll yield is on the forward contracts maturity date. I understand a roll yield depends on whether you need to BUY or SELL the BASE currency to maintain the hedge. So if we’re buying the Base at a Forward Discount or Selling the Base at a Forward Premium —> Positve Roll Yield
So for Blue Box Example 5C). I can’t figure out from the chart how you know if for the hedge we’re selling or buying at a Forward Premium or discount. I know to hedge in the question we are BUYING THE BASE to Hedge. But dont understand how to tell if we’re buying at a Forward Premium or Discount
If long foreign asset, you sell forward the fx. Here it is mxn so sell 10m pesos.
But quote is reversed ie mxn/£. So sell mxn equiv to buy £. So u r buying mxn/£ exchange.
Now, the quote is forward discount. If you were selling, you could buy ‘low’ – yielding +ve roll yield; however…you are buying, therefore this quote indicates forward premium ie, -ve roll yield.
We are buying £. If we were to sell, we would use the rate that results in paying more £ in bid/ask
Since we are buying £, use the the forward rate that offers few £ for 10m mxn. That rate is the same as you described.
Now, you are committed to deliver 10m peso after 2mo and recv £496,327.
If the 1m fwd is say 19, you have committed 20/£ when u could have waited and committed to just 19/£ (commitment to recv 526,316) - if you roll forward, you book the loss 30,000£ (Your fwd is expensive vs mkt - Negative roll yield)
if the 1m fwd is say 21, you made a good call, your hedge is in the money, which will allow you cash out the difference £20,000 ie you sell 20 mxn/£ (commitment to rcv 496, 327 and buy 21 mxn/£ 1mo fwd, commitment to rcv £476,190) and book the profit immediately £20,000 (positive roll yield)