Anyone here going long USD/short Euro. Got a feeling Europe is absolutely screwed and have no idea how to save their economies!
IronMan Wrote: > Got a > feeling Europe is absolutely screwed and have no > idea how to save their economies! What makes you say that?
maratikus Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > IronMan Wrote: > > Got a > > feeling Europe is absolutely screwed and have > no > > idea how to save their economies! > > What makes you say that? Do you pay attention to the news? There is no coordination between the countries on how to solve their crisis. They don’t act, just talk. They haven’t put in any policies to help them out of their mess.
> Got a > feeling Europe is absolutely screwed and have no > idea how to save their economies! yeah cause the US definitely has its sh!t together right now
farney Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > Got a > > feeling Europe is absolutely screwed and have > no > > idea how to save their economies! > > > > yeah cause the US definitely has its sh!t together > right now not saying that, just think we’re in a better place than Europe.
I would not go long right now, I think the market has already priced a potential decrease in European rates and if an unlikely one happens in the US, then you will see the Euro fly back to the 1.45 territory But I am deeply convinced that the equilibrium rate to which we will converge in medium term is around 1.25-1.30 (which would be nicer to me when I come back to Europe with my USDs…)
Well I just got off the phone with a UK manager, and he made me wanna slit my wrists from his take on things over there and where he sees it going…awful. At the same time he brought up a good point that the easiest way to erase debts is to print money to cover it…which will lead to inflation/stagflation, which both the US and EUR are going to do…
Short-Term I would short the USD. It’s had quite a run in the last month and needs to cool off a little bit before strengthening again.
Don’t suppose you were short ISK lately, were you? Wish I had been…it might not be too late though.
I’m definitely NOT a currency expert. But in the research I follow for f/x which comes from Credit Suisse, I’m thinking that the current rally in the greenback is perhaps a matter of psychology of crowds. CS is forecasting two rate cuts: one any minute now and the other in December for a total of 100 basis points off the current Fed Funds Rate. I’m just NOT seeing how the Dollar can keep moving forward when FOMC and Treasury have pledged to drop rates and print money. CFAViriginhooker made the comment of “Welcome to the world of $9 bread USA” [am paraphrasing] which I found amusing at the time. Today I find hooker’s comment timely. Willy
WillyR Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I’m definitely NOT a currency expert. But in the > research I follow for f/x which comes from Credit > Suisse, I’m thinking that the current rally in the > greenback is perhaps a matter of psychology of > crowds. CS is forecasting two rate cuts: one any > minute now and the other in December for a total > of 100 basis points off the current Fed Funds > Rate. I’m just NOT seeing how the Dollar can keep > moving forward when FOMC and Treasury have pledged > to drop rates and print money. CFAViriginhooker > made the comment of “Welcome to the world of $9 > bread USA” which I found amusing at the time. > Today I find hooker’s comment timely. > > Willy Willy, I’m not saying just go long USD. If the US has to cut interest rates, imagine what Europe is going to have do in the future… that’s right, slash em’ big time!! Moreso, than the U.S. So my best is that the USD will grow in value against the Euro.
then why not look at the yen?
tvPM Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > then why not look at the yen? Do you like the yen?
To be honest I dont know that much about the yen, but thinking that the US and EUR are going to have to do a lot to stabilize things (read:print tons of money, cut rates, etc), and with Japan being somewhat more stable at least from a banking system, it may be that they are positioned to appreciate during these times.