Do you see the market topping?

The Dow and S&P kept hitting 2-year high in the past few weeks. Are we hittnig a small top here and a small (albeit healthy probably) correct is due? Any thought?

Dude, you’ve been short since March 2009. You made the same post last year. You missed the ride, that’s what happens when you try to time the market.

Short since March 2009 LOL

former trader Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Dude, you’ve been short since March 2009. You > made the same post last year. You missed the > ride, that’s what happens when you try to time the > market. Ha! you make statement out of thin air?! My strategy makes money when the market oscillate in a flat or slightly upward trend. Doubled my money in 2009 and up 40%+ YTD. You probablly did even better given the great market condition, but I am happy with my high alpha two years in a row…

I’m happy you made money and curious about your strategy, but wasn’t the market trend in 2009 strongly upward, particularly after February ended? This year was the oscillating flat or slightly upward year. 100% in 2009 and 40% in 2010 are great numbers, but it doesn’t sound like a strategy that makes money when you say it does.

bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- 100% in 2009 and 40% in > 2010 are great numbers, but it doesn’t sound like > a strategy that makes money when you say it does. eerily similar to a BIG HF manager who got exposed in late 2008…!

I think we can still have an upward movement, partly due to people investing their 2010 bonus (whether in the finance world or another sector). I cannot imagine they will content themselves of letting this money on a deposit account which provides a real negative interest rate. I personally see a push in ETF: “easy way” to diversify. In addition to “gurus” claiming that 2011 will be a good year for stocks…

bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I’m happy you made money and curious about your > strategy, but wasn’t the market trend in 2009 > strongly upward, particularly after February > ended? This year was the oscillating flat or > slightly upward year. 100% in 2009 and 40% in > 2010 are great numbers, but it doesn’t sound like > a strategy that makes money when you say it does. Without going into too much details, I am a derivatives guy. You get the picture if you are IN the market. When the market shot up strongly like in 2009, I made good money, but I was more and more exposed losses/corrections because of the elevated prices. That’s why when the markets plunged in April, May and June this year, my portfolio took a hit, lost all the profit I made in Q1. So I am only profitable in the 2nd half of the year. ideally, if a market oscillates, I make money both ways, in a much safer way. Hence the alpha is pretty much as a big uptrend market. Now, enough about me. Where do you guys see the market go from here?

If I were investing today, I might hold out for a correction. That said, it would have been extremely unwise to do so in 2009. I am bullish on the long term prospects for the stock market.

I hope so, my short financials bet is murdering me.

Black Swan Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I hope so, my short financials bet is murdering > me. Your loss is my gain, thank you!

Robert A Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > If I were investing today, I might hold out for a > correction. That said, it would have been > extremely unwise to do so in 2009. > > I am bullish on the long term prospects for the > stock market. S&P up 85% in the last 18 months.

Black Swan Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I hope so, my short financials bet is murdering > me. Swan, what is your thesis of shorting financials?

Purely technical, thought they had hit a local peak. On a fundamental level over the next 1-2 years I love them, especially the crap names. With BMO moving to pick up M&I, TD grabbing Chrystler financial (makes no sense to me) it seems the floodgates may be opening and a lot of analysts have been predicting that when it occurs the consolidation will be massive. Regardless of the Basel III implications (will take years to finally agree on and will be watered down significantly by then, not to mention we’re still trying to implement Basel initiatives from 10 years ago), I think the profitable outcome of picking up cheap banking assets and overall improving asset quality and a growing economy will mean a big boost to banks.

AlphaSeeker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Without going into too much details, I am a > derivatives guy. You get the picture if you are IN > the market. > > When the market shot up strongly like in 2009, I > made good money, but I was more and more exposed > losses/corrections because of the elevated prices. > That’s why when the markets plunged in April, May > and June this year, my portfolio took a hit, lost > all the profit I made in Q1. So I am only > profitable in the 2nd half of the year. > > ideally, if a market oscillates, I make money both > ways, in a much safer way. Hence the alpha is > pretty much as a big uptrend market. Sounds like you should talk to NakedPuts, or his big brother, NakedStraddles.

AlphaSeeker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > former trader Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Dude, you’ve been short since March 2009. You > > made the same post last year. You missed the > > ride, that’s what happens when you try to time > the > > market. > > Ha! you make statement out of thin air?! > > My strategy makes money when the market oscillate > in a flat or slightly upward trend. Doubled my > money in 2009 and up 40%+ YTD. > > You probablly did even better given the great > market condition, but I am happy with my high > alpha two years in a row… How did you score a good return when your strategy is flat or slight upward trend?