Cast your vote to gauge market sentiment
- It reached that level in 1998 or so. It has never reached 13000. That was easy.
What does 1998 have to do with 2008? and yes, it hit 14,000 last October
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 8000. It reached that level in 1998 or so. It > has never reached 13000. That was easy. Pass it this way next please…
BosyBillups Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What does 1998 have to do with 2008? and yes, it > hit 14,000 last October Did it really? Seems hard to remember now… Must be the alcohol.
13,000 no way it will hit 8,000 again
neither. it is range bound till election, amybe some relief rallies here and there
In the event the bailout doesn’t get passed, 8,000 may be a possibility. If its passed, as its looking more and more likely to do so, 13,000 will be much more likely.
13K
Given that the normal state of the economy is growth, and that 13000 is closer to the current value than 8000, I’d put my bet on getting to 13k before dropping to 8k. However, I certainly wouldn’t bet the house on it, so to speak.
8,000 would be a disaster. The DJIA topped out right around 14,300 so from top to bottom 8,000 would represent about a 45% drop. As of today the market would have to fall another 25% to hit that 8,000 level.
8,000.
13,000- I can’t see it hitting 8k, too many people will be looking for value buys in the down market, that will keep it propped up. IMO the only way it hits 8k is if there’s a crash…and I don’t see that happening anymore. I see a slow decline dipping no lower than 9500.
c’mon gremlin seriously? 8,000? why? where did this 8,000 number come from - - just pulled it out of the air for this thread?
Besides, the dow hitting 8,000 at this point wouldn’t be similar to hitting 8,000 in 1998. That would be equivalent to hitting 5000-6000 in 1998.
projectplatnyc Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > c’mon gremlin seriously? 8,000? why? > > where did this 8,000 number come from - - just > pulled it out of the air for this thread? Pull it out of the air? It’s in the title of the thread
Re: Does DJIA touch 8,000 or 13,000 first? new Posted by: cfa_gremlin (IP Logged) [hide posts from this user] Date: September 25, 2008 11:54AM projectplatnyc Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > c’mon gremlin seriously? 8,000? why? > > where did this 8,000 number come from - - just > pulled it out of the air for this thread? Pull it out of the air? It’s in the title of the thread _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Yeah - I know. Was wondering where the 8,000 number came through in the thread (or maybe just random) But any basis to drive it down to 8,000 - do you think our economy is hit that hard and needs further adjustment, or just have an overwhelming negative sentiment?
8,000 probably came from the fact that it’s held many times before, as you pointed out that it did in '98. It also neared 8000 in '01 shortly after the terrorist attacks, twice in '02 (with one break below, but failure to hold), and another quick break below in early '03, all failing to stay below 8,000.
Exactly, if you believe in Dow Theory, if the Dow breaks down through 10,700 or somewhere around that number, then the next stop is where the bull run up began… around 8,000 or less.
“But any basis to drive it down to 8,000 - do you think our economy is hit that hard and needs further adjustment, or just have an overwhelming negative sentiment?” I’m betting on credit expansion falling way below expectations after this bailout bill is complete. This bailout bill, from the vague details that have come out, does not address what I believe is the root problem of this credit crunch. The root problem is an over-leveraged exhausted household balance sheet. My argument is that the current “fire-sale” prices are not “fire-sale”, instead they are a product of a financial system that is deleveraging and needs to de-leverage, and in my opinion, the level of leverage in the financial system is going to be nowhere near the levels seen in the past 5yrs. The ending result will be less balance sheet; hence, less buyers. Many companies believed that debt expansion is perpetual so they expanded operations. Just look at the retail chain stores and restaurants that have created a continuous stream of shopping malls along America’s highways. Many of these companies are will go belly-up as America’s ever expanding service bubble economy comes to an end. The stock market will eventually follow the credit markets, just as enough suckers are enticed to get in after pundits on CNBC declare a bottom.