Would you double down anytime soon??? Any thoughts on doubling down or the opposite pulling out at a loss?
The risk manager will surely not let you do it (or he should be fired).
There are just as many buyers as there are sellers.
I always double down on 11.
Please do, we need people like you in the market!!
im doubling down… but hey, im just a run-off-the-mill asian gambler =)
Dollar cost averaging and a 30 year investment horizon…two ways to not lose any sleep over the market. But damn, I hate seeing my portfolio getting whacked like it has been.
I have doubled-down and am getting a loan in place in case I want to go even longer. I think this could be a once-in-a-decade opp.
oh no… 1) The stock market is off less than 20% from it’s highs of a few months ago. Stock markets (even the US stock market) go down much worse than that. The US stock market has dropped as much as 85% and 40% losses are common in the history of the market. 2) What are the fundamentals that would lead anyone to buy this market? Just some notion that the stock market always recovers? 3) This doesn’t seem to be a 1987 style problem to me but much more like '73-74. Doubling down in 1973 worked if you could wait about 6 - 7 years (and truthfully this does not seem as bad to me). 4) How are you taking out a loan? In our current credit problems the ways of doing this don’t seem so good to me. Credit cards is nuts. Margin debt is very risky if that’s your only resource. Home equity loans shouldn’t be used for anything speculative because losing your house is a serious problem. Friends and family is a way of ruining important aspects of your life. I don’t know what’s going to happen here and the market may recover, despite my opinion. I do know that borrowing money in a tight credit market to go long a tanking stock market on the premise that stocks always go up is very silly. Even if it works, it’s very silly.
So I primarily have gold and energy exposure, and have tried to get market neutral otherwise (though am not as close as I thought). So now I’m trying to think through: do I stay exposed, because the dollar is going to pot again, or do I sell, because recession means that demand will drop for commodities in general? Or is there an options strategy that fits?
Why don’t you spend the day in the art museum and not think about it? There’s not much to be done right now.
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > oh no… > > 1) The stock market is off less than 20% from it’s > highs of a few months ago. Stock markets (even the > US stock market) go down much worse than that. > The US stock market has dropped as much as 85% and > 40% losses are common in the history of the > market. > > 2) What are the fundamentals that would lead > anyone to buy this market? Just some notion that > the stock market always recovers? > > 3) This doesn’t seem to be a 1987 style problem to > me but much more like '73-74. Doubling down in > 1973 worked if you could wait about 6 - 7 years > (and truthfully this does not seem as bad to me). > > > 4) How are you taking out a loan? In our current > credit problems the ways of doing this don’t seem > so good to me. Credit cards is nuts. Margin debt > is very risky if that’s your only resource. Home > equity loans shouldn’t be used for anything > speculative because losing your house is a serious > problem. Friends and family is a way of ruining > important aspects of your life. > > I don’t know what’s going to happen here and the > market may recover, despite my opinion. I do know > that borrowing money in a tight credit market to > go long a tanking stock market on the premise that > stocks always go up is very silly. Even if it > works, it’s very silly. I don’t want to sound challenging, but … I am unphased by point (1) because I believe that the stockmarket is cheap (it ain’t 2000), and cheap regardless of a possible US recession this year. Point (2), there are no obvious catalysts, but the sell-off appears fairly indiscriminate. At the heart of my approach is a very long-term mind-set and a focus on intrinsic value. I have no idea if stocks will get cheaper first, but I am very comfortable with what I am paying. Point (3), I can’t really comment, but can afford to wait 6-7 years or a lot longer. Point (4), not really difficult, I am pre-approved (just have to ask) for a loan up to £25,000. My household balance sheet carries no debt, so this is a breeze to service. The interest rate is fairly attractive and so sets a low hurdle… And I’ll only act if (and as) things get cheaper.
How anyone who has began studying for the CFA Level I exam can think stocks are currently undervalued is beyond me. Edit: Joey you’re right on the money with your points.
^^^ First, this is a pretty categorical statement you’re making. Second, I don’t think JDV was saying the market is necessarily overvalued. He may think it, but I don’t think he said so above. Third, I’m not sure what CFA Level I has to do with it. How can anyone have this view after starting Level I?! WTF? You must be an idiot. So, according to you, everyone buying stocks now can’t possibly know what they’re doing?
It is true that for every seller there needs to be a buyer. It definitely looks like the bears have had the balance of power over the last few days in terms of price action. However, things don’t seem quite as bad now as they seemed this morning.
The market will definitely go lower but this is a good time to buy stocks and later throughout this year assuming the buyer is long.
Today might have been an OK day to drop a few hundred thousand in a Japanese mutual fund and play the bounce for a day or two.
I remember the 1987 crash, I was in high school. A few days later after the crash, I heard a teacher say that he invested more after the crash. Right now, I’m thinking he was a smart man to do so.
Yeah and in '29 you would have watched more than half that money go away. In the 20th century, 10 major stock markets went to 0 taking away all money.
My boss almost got me to bet 30-1 that the market would be up today (he was taking the up side). Didn’t take it because I don’t make market bets with a guy who’s been doing this for 45 years.