When will this happen? a) today b) tomorrow (Friday) c) within next week d) never again
C
D
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hilarity - tomorrow
Tomorrow is also options expiration if that means anything.
thommo77 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > D Someone is hoping for the rubber band to snap down tomorrow
Its going to happen on the open today. Should have a bounce at sometime during the middle of the day, but I think the smart money is on a close below 10k today.
look at the bright side - we get to see everyone break out those ‘DOW 10,000’ hats for a third time… i’m betting that won’t happen for another week or so, too many variables right now (us financial legislation, eu debt problems, new uk leadership, crazy az immigration laws spreading like wildfire…)
How low can it go today? Another 50 points or so?
People have been flying into cash all month and I don’t think another 50 pts is out of the question. Incidentally, I’m loving this as my funds are positioned short vol in the equity positions relative to the market right now. The hard questions is: where is the bottom? I think probably pretty soon. It’s tougher than last March to call though.
No way, I think we have a ways yet to see the bottom. China’s in a bear market, American’s housing crisis is still on life support, banks could start failing all over Europe, and SK practically declared war with NK in the last couple days. Anything gives and there will be a domino effect.
mar350 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > look at the bright side - we get to see everyone > break out those ‘DOW 10,000’ hats for a third > time… > I used to have one of those hats…I ate it when the Dow dropped to 10k.
Reggie Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > No way, I think we have a ways yet to see the > bottom. China’s in a bear market, American’s > housing crisis is still on life support, banks > could start failing all over Europe, and SK > practically declared war with NK in the last > couple days. Anything gives and there will be a > domino effect. I’m pretty sure some of these events are priced in (of course it could get a whole lot worse, in which case a second wave of selling would continue).
I just don’t think they are priced in. I’ve seen interviews from reputable economists and hedge fund managers that say this past bull run was not deserved at all. Just over optimistic. They expect stock prices to come back down to earth pretty soon and I’m getting the feeling more and more hedge funds are going short equities. But hey, what does anyone know, that’s why its the stock market. Indexes could be reaching new highs in two months or we could be back down to 2008 levels.
It’s been a bull market if you compare it to the March 2009 lows. But if you compare it to the October 2007 highs or even where we were 10 years ago (basically flat for the decade), I see no bull market. Maybe the selling was exaggerated in 2008 and we simply went back to “fair value”. I do agree with you though when you mention “Indexes could be reaching new highs in two months or we could be back down to 2008 levels”.
Honestly, and this may have nothing to do with this psychological number, I think the market has not priced in the the N/S Korea thing yet. I really thing we have at least 1-5% more downside left before we can start to build back.