Hello, I have been reading news about how the current situation in the Middle East and North Africa is affecting oil prices, gold, and increasing instability in global markets. My question is: How exactly are international banks adjusting to this situation in terms of hedging, fixed income trading, and risk management? Thank you so much in advance and I hope that we will all learn something from this post 
i think if most of us knew the answer, i would be making good money and not looking for messages to answer on AF, lol but here is what i do know, what is going on in the middle east is good for the “world” in the long run, despite all these fears that will be reflected in prices… these dictators have turned a good sized region of the world to nothing, we dont make shit in the middle east…if we build real economies after this the whole world would be better off…
nasrys88 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Hello, > I have been reading news about how the current > situation in the Middle East and North Africa is > affecting oil prices, gold, and increasing > instability in global markets. > > My question is: How exactly are international > banks adjusting to this situation in terms of > hedging, fixed income trading, and risk > management? > > Thank you so much in advance and I hope that we > will all learn something from this post Flight to safety/hard assets, lower leverage/risk off, increased options prices (implied volatility).
As soon as these countries become industrialized, they will have 1.5 children per family on average and the world won’t have 20 billion people living in it 20 years from now.
^ wont have, dont you mean will have? or am I not understanding what you are getting at? I am thinking along similar lines, these countries getting more and more developed is driving food and commodity prices through the roof. I think in 5-10 years we will think back to $100 oil and laugh as we pay $10 per gallon at the pump, which wont matter as our cars will hopefully be getting 100mpg.
Won’t have. The region has a very high birth rate. By getting more developed, the birthrates will decrease which will be a relief for the planet as we cannot continue at this pace. Many resources are finite.
Any examples of countries in the middle east or south Asia where money and industrialization has done this?
ChickenTikka Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Any examples of countries in the middle east or > south Asia where money and industrialization has > done this? islam incourages muslims to have as many kids as they can or thats how they seem to understand it i am a muslim, but i would have the number of kids that will bring bring the most utility to the planet ie i wana have a doctor son, and not a dishwashsher+slut+pimp kids… anyway, most muslims will have more kids when they have more money… so if the economy of the middle east improves, i say expect more population and and equal increase in high jacks and suicide bombers
Interesting times. Obviously quite a few intermediate term risks to oil prices. If this unrest spreads to Saudi Arabia forget about $100/barrel for oil; Libya is just a drop in the sand when it comes to oil production.
former trader Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Won’t have. The region has a very high birth > rate. By getting more developed, the birthrates > will decrease which will be a relief for the > planet as we cannot continue at this pace. Many > resources are finite. i’m not a demographics specialist but doesn’t birth rate decline to 1.5 only when education rates reach western levels. wouldn’t that take much longer than 20 years if you have no chance of creating adequate internal food/water/power supply. isn’t the foundation of basic services based on a country’s ability to supply its own food/water/power. i’m quite sure that’s why N.A., Europe, Brazil and China are living it up while countries with limited arable land are living it down. having to desalinate to supply water for life, agriculture and power will forever limit MENA’s ability to offer basic needs/services as it increases the cost of everything. limited access to nuclear power is another obstacle. people in these countries have to be able to afford food, water and power before they can afford condoms and birth control. how do you build a disposable income when water/food/power is many times more costly than it is in western countries. without disposable income, you have no school because there are no jobs but those for sustenance. also, a question, can muslims wear condoms and/or take birth control? i suppose if MENA becomes what S. Korea is to the US then sure, the birth rate will drop, but I highly doubt this would ever happen without the complete and utter destruction of Syria and Iran.
ChickenTikka Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Any examples of countries in the middle east or > south Asia where money and industrialization has > done this? India. May not be visible to outsiders though,and may not be visible for decades to come. Though poor people are still in majority and birth rates are quite high from that side,but in middle class families(which is increasing) ,people can’t afford more kids because of high cost of living.And more development will only slow the population growth. In Middle east it may not happen because Govts here pay to indigineous families for having more kids,families get huge allowances from govt. So they don’t have to worry about expenses.
This is true, birthrates in India have steadily been coming down.
Palantir Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > This is true, birthrates in India have steadily > been coming down. There are two reasons associated with this 1) Decline in infant mortality rate. Earlier, kids in poor households used to die before reaching adulthood, so people always over produced babies. When modern medicine came it took a generation wide gap for society to believe on medicine, and now finally people believe that vaccines can save kids, so they are producing only as much as they need… i.e. one or two. 2) Increased affluence, more access to opportunities. Earlier there weren’t much marginal benefits to education, everything below avant grade education was pretty much useless, so ROI was useless unless education was really avant grade. Now, there are opportunities according to education so people are investing seriously on their kids education, because ROI is certain now if the education is decent or above decent, though crap is still crap, that’s why it’s better to produce optimum amount, which is maximum 3 babies for a middle class family, otherwise it becomes really hard to provide a decent education.