Err... AAPL is trading at $464 right now....

For your information.

In other news, NetFlix up 40%…

NFLX probably won’t steal the headlines from AAPL in most cases, but it should!

Scary. You think AAPL miss will have enough weight to knock the 'ye ol S&P and Nasdaq down a wee bit in the am?

I’ve never seen a persuasive bear case for this stock outside of momentum and headline risk. Once you strip away the hoopla you get a massive, well run company that makes great products that people are willing to pay a premium for worldwide. It has a competitive edge over its rivals that is hard to replicate, and a loyal customer base. It might not be as profitable going forward as it has been in the past, but I see nothing but bright days ahead for Apple.

First the zeigeist was about “Apple is innovative!”, now the zeitgest says, “Apple isn’t “cool” anymore”. Apple has never been about being “cool”, it’s about making a fantastic product that people really want to own, something that integrates hardware and software and is greater than the sum of its parts. That will continue.

^ I know it’s just anecdotal, but why are more and more high school students now preferring Samsungs? (this according to 2 teachers in different parts of the country). They are the current and more importantly future customer base. I’m starting to hear the same about pandora vs itunes.

I’m not saying Samsung cannot put out a good product, but I think even if your anecdote was assumed to be “systemically true”, it’s hard to build a full on bear case from it. Whenever something becomes super popular, there is fatigue and a backlash. So Apple’s market share will certainly erode, and a large section of the population will refuse to buy their stuff, but I think Apple will continue to appeal to a lot of people.

Remember, Samsung needs to come up with a lot of hits to really start eating into Apple, they also don’t have a software platform of their own which they can control.

Not saying there are any parallels. But I hear from more and more friends they want to ditch their iphones for the galaxyS3

The valuation on Apple is effing stupid. A company this profitable with this much cash selling for such a low relative value is just dumb. I think it’ll bounce back as soon as, if not before they come out with something new. Samsung has some great products, don’t get me wrong, but the iphone isn’t going anywhere as one of the dominant smartphones. Just a simply random personal anecdote, on my 10 person team at work, I’m the only one who doesn’t have an iphone and I have an Android.

but without a favourable perception of its products can apple sustain a triple digit share price on the back of its fundamentals alone? I would say no, this is why headline risk is so critical for overvalued/undervalued companies, it’s simple because when it comes down to it, perception is everything.

I am seeing this trend… same level of exodus as when I started to notice people with ipods in my schools pop up… (10 years ago)

The way I see it, My mom and grandma both have Iphones, my aunt has an iphone, my 59 year old lady boss got one… my dad wanted one. The iphone is no longer hip…it’s for those with bad hips.

The premium they sold at will not be around for long.

Only hope = Apple televisions


guy who called apple at $170

There’s a bigger, wealthier market with the seniors…

My mom just got a 5. Plus old people don’t scoff-law as much (excluding batteries - I’ve heard they like to steal batteries) or have the technical savvy/ambition to bootleg music like I do off datpiff. Buying the shit they used to listen to is probably rewarding/enjoyable. Tough balance, but that’s not a huge turnoff to me as an investor.

You’re making two different points here. I concede the point about the 3 digit stock price. I have absolutely no idea how the stock will do. Indeed perception is everything there.

However, with regards to the products, who is to say that Apple doesn’t have a favorable perception? GS3 might be gaining in popularity, but Apple products are still just as beautifully designed and seamlessly work with their software. They suddenly did not get ugly.

I definitely agree that competitors will make inroads into Apple’s market share, but that doesn’t mean that Apple is suddenly yesterday’s fad.

The problem is that Apple hasn’t made a new product that different and that shiny since the original Iphone and original IPad. People want the newest thing and a reiteration of the same exact product doesn’t work well for people who use their phones as status symbols.

When Steve died I thought it didnt matter. But now I’m really starting to wonder. They haven’t even tried to come up with anything new since then. The only changes have been making the project longer or narrower. Big fcuking deal.

So honestly, who on AF is a bagholder of AAPL +$500?


Palantir, what is your average cost?

Chicken’s got it. Apple devices today feel exactly the same as their first gens. People buy androids because they can customize things like the lock screens and homescreen layouts and all that, apple is pretty cut n dry. They need to open it up to that, as well as throw out some new innovations. But at the same time, my rents are the least technologically literate people I know and they both picked up iphone in no time. They won’t stop texting me now lol.

I have no position in Apple (AAPL) nor do I intend to iniate a position in the near future.

My parents are completely useless with computers but they are finally opening up to the idea of getting an Ipad. It is really shocking. All the features and customizations are important for nerds, but very few people over the age of 25 miss them. Most grown ups just want something that works and they get furious if it doesnt. They remember a time when things were built to last more than 2 to 3 years. Although, admittedly butter churners were less technologically complex than iphones are now.

This price has me interested in pulling the trigger. I have been predicting that this stock would move sideways to down for a long time. I gotta believe the Apple TV is on its way though. Doing something bold like that is what will move the stock up again. How many more fucking iphones are they really gonna sell?

Pretty much everyone has a position in Apple, since it’s like 5% of the S&P 500…

Longer and Narrower is not necessarily better, thus AAPL’s 3rd revenue miss… I always heard ‘Girth’ is the primary driver of things…

I think Steve Jobs’ departure was a very material event for Apple. For another company, it might not have mattered. However, Apple has relied on Jobs’ messianic leadership to guide their product development. I bet no one dared say “Steve, you are crazy”, when they decided to make weird touch screen phones in 2005 (?). Remember - Apple had never made a cell phone before then, let alone what Jobs believed would be the best phone in the world. However, now, when Tim Cook or Jony Ives comes up with the next big risky project, hands will go up all over the room. Apple’s propensity for risk has declined after Jobs left. They’ve already had some pretty public executive fights. The next bold new innovation will be much less likely to materialize. And in the mean time, Samsung, HTC, Google, Motorola, and Chinese knockoffs are getting closer and closer…

I actually doubt that their revenue will decline that much. More and more people are buying smart phones. However, the industry is getting much more competitive, and this will erode margins…