its not about the market anymore. its about price levels. the high expecatation of a deflationary spiral is what got us to 666 on the spy, and the rally is the new high expectation of rampant inflation. i am a deflationist, thinking that all this stimulus won’t stick but they could just keep throwing stimulus at this until it becomes inflationary. think about it, if we got deflation with every western government in the world now knee deep in debt, there would be sovereign defaults from AAA countries which would decimate the world economy. i’m now in the inflation or die camp. my bets right now are junior oil. high inflation and dollar depreciation in a non-US oil company = $$$. in a deflationary scenario, there will be dollar depreciation anyway as the dollar is no longer safe, and oil will hold up in USD, providing my non-US oil company with $$$. its about making bets that will withstand any extreme scenario. btw, they must have $$$ on hand or else they’ll go bankrupt in the deflationary scenario. to sum up, investing in companies like microsoft right now is stupid.
how do you want me to get? why are you comparing me to your neighbor?
Ako Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > how do you want me to get? why are you comparing > me to your neighbor? not comparing you to my neighbor; that was just a funny side story how do you want me to get? not sure what that means, but i think the answer is buy and hold index funds, or learn how to make money in the market by getting your a** handed to you by the market, i think those are the only 2 ways to make money investing btw…great insight Matt…I’m thinking PBR
ugh nevermind, dont feel like arguing about this again for the reasons stated by the OP
Greater Fools/Soccer Mom Theory?
I know that you guys are just trying to help. i will eventually start to diversify more. I know that my current attitude is not sustainable.
Like I’ve said many times before, you WANT stupid people in the market. They’re the ones who create the opportunities. If you got nothing but Jim Simons’s in the market there would be no mispricings of anything whatsoever.
right
The market is goofy out of wack with reality. But stupid people are your friend, enjoy it and make money off them and then get out in time. Heck my condo value on Zillow is even showing a nice bounce. Go go go so I can sell sell sell!
i buy puts on large position. alot of time they expire worthless but they help me sleep at night
If you have a position that keeps you up at night, that’s a good indication that you shouldn’t have that position on, or you have it sized incorrectly.
hopefully Level III will help me here…cant wait to start studying in a month!
I’m a big fan of concentration over diversification actually. Diversification is BS, you just end up with the market portfolio return minus the cost of your time. And then people do all this crap like hedging w/ derivatives, f-hedging, you just end up with the market port - minus the cost of your time - minus the hedging premium. I say be a man, concentrate your portfolio.
purealpha Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I’m a big fan of concentration over > diversification actually. > > Diversification is BS, you just end up with the > market portfolio return minus the cost of your > time. And then people do all this crap like > hedging w/ derivatives, f-hedging, you just end up > with the market port - minus the cost of your time > - minus the hedging premium. > > I say be a man, concentrate your portfolio. you made my day 
… f-the portfolio
I’m joking of course, sorta, but not really…actually not at all. On Saturday I’m getting a tatoo of a NO diversification symbol on one of my guns.
Purealpha Wrote: --------------------------------------------- I’m a big fan of concentration over diversification actually. Diversification is BS, you just end up with the market portfolio return minus the cost of your time. And then people do all this crap like hedging w/ derivatives, f-hedging, you just end up with the market port - minus the cost of your time - minus the hedging premium. I say be a man, concentrate your portfolio. ---------------------------------------------- 1000% agreed with you …
the question is do you have the information to add alpha? if you’re joe blow off the street, then i’d say no you cannot consistently add alpha and your best bet is to hold the market portfolio.
Life is about having backup options… hence diversification
People don’t want to make decisions…hence diversification.
Concentrate on what you know Hedge what you’re afraid of. Diversify the rest.