Whereever I go… the pool… restaurant… neighbors… I am now hearing how good the market is and it will only go up… Even an unemployed guy I met was happy with things… When I tell people it most likely is overbought and will go down slightly (as not to scare them) they get VERY DEFENSIVE and saying that it won’t happen, it already did. Even asking why the insiders are selling if things are so good and talking about a specific stock doesn’t get them to change their minds the only way to go is up… Think it’s a sign for me the market will come crashing down…
all the major indices are still 20%-40% down from late 2007 early 2008 peaks… suppose they achieve that peak in 2 year time…it would be a good return from here… in 4 years there has to be atleat 10-20% earnings growth, even if market was trading at crazy multiples then, reasonable multiples at some time in next two years would take all the market to new highs
Im with PTNY on this one.
i have achieved over 60% return on my money since march.
If you feel that way, the short ETFs are cheap as hell right now, especially the leveraged ones. I personally think there’s still some upside until we trade off these levels. Recent data has been very positive, and housing looks like it’s actually stablizing (however I will note that the positive data may be coming more from lower priced homes). I’m getting the euphoric emotions from people I speak with as well, but it’s hard to fight it when the momentum is so strong in one direction.
Muddahudda Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Im with PTNY on this one. I’ll join this camp
this rally we have been having is a once in a lifetime thing. im long
Even the professional chatter (I listen to Bloomberg all day) is markedly more positive. With each week that passes fewer and fewer people are calling for a pullback, and more and more are saying there is more upside. My *guess* is Q3 earnings will disappoint/healthcare legislation will pass and not be market friendly/swine flu will be worse than anticipated and well have another nasty fall (-20%). I’m 2/3 cash, 1/3 short
Ako Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > i have achieved over 60% return on my money since > march. How much did you make in 08? How much is beta in 09?
i’m not a believer until we see profits driven by revenue growth and not cost cutting. I think the days of double digit profit growth in ‘normal’ times is over because companies will not be able to leverage as much. That argues for lower P/Es and constrained valuations. My sell stops are in.
jbaldyga Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > i’m not a believer until we see profits driven by > revenue growth and not cost cutting. I think the > days of double digit profit growth in ‘normal’ > times is over because companies will not be able > to leverage as much. That argues for lower P/Es > and constrained valuations. > > My sell stops are in. Agree, most of it is cost cutting. That serves the purpose for meeting short-term expectations but it hampers future growth. Ako - I agree its a rally, but what do you mean once in a lifetime? What about the rally pre-housing meltdown? You sound like Cramer. There’s nothing fundamental about this.
i only started investing in march. i invested only in banks. i am sure if you adjust for risk my return is not much. i bought FAS, UYG, BAC, C, BCS, LYG, AIB to name a few stocks.
the market is GREAT! Subprime is contained.
Ako Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > i only started investing in march. i invested only > in banks. i am sure if you adjust for risk my > return is not much. i bought FAS, UYG, BAC, C, > BCS, LYG, AIB to name a few stocks. jesus man branch out, that’s an easy way to get slaughtered
I’m too scared to do much right now. Every day, I feel I should start shorting more and more. I think I am going to start taking small positions on the short side this week. For whatever reason, September and October tend to be bad months.
Ako Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > i only started investing in march. i invested only > in banks. i am sure if you adjust for risk my > return is not much. i bought FAS, UYG, BAC, C, > BCS, LYG, AIB to name a few stocks. This must be louisvillegrad’s evil twin brother.
I tend to fall into the camp that wants to see some profitable growth that is sustainable, not just one-time cost cutting initiatives
well im making money. should i listen to you and get out?
Ako Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > well im making money. should i listen to you and > get out? hahahaha…i love it when people who have been investing for 6 months get all defensive I have a neighbor (IT manager for a lawn mower manufacturer) who brags to everyone on the street that he moved to all cash on Oct 1 and put everything back into the market on March 1. See, he reads Smart Money magazine and is a great investor. Then he asks me what a p/e ratio is
I started investing my own money in November 1999, racked up a 230% return by April 2000 and thought I was hot sh!t. You can probably figure out how that story ended by 2002.