palantir, you go for BRK or Lowes?. …their shares outperformed BRK over 10 years…but their underlying business are average to weak…but its cheaper and more value (sum fothe parts is less than total holding company value)…
i might get in on BRK as well…let me know…
I actually think Brk is cheaper than lowes, and Brk has been growing pretty fast as well. I just have overall more confidence in Brk but that may change. Furthermore with WEB effectively putting a floor on the stock we get a major margin of safety AND a catalyst.
I want to get in at the same price WEB would buy at so I may just put in a limit order set at 1.1*BV so about 77.50 or below.
Apart from BRK and Lowes, do you think in general insurance firms have been really cheap overall? The way I see it is that even if interest rates are low now, when they rise, the firms that have been selling annutiies will do really well. as their liabilities are essentially fixed rates and the assets tend to have a shorter duration than liabilities.
He couldn’t leave that damn hoodie at home just this one time?
i like BRK quality wise, but stock looks like it will track the index overtime…its growth in BVPS problably won’t exceed 15% annually (which is damm good hurdle)…that said, i can do a lot worst than buy BRK…
the thing with Lowes is it pays a dividend (special dividend if they do something really smart)…but the company just isn’t growing…it has grown its BV over the last few years because it bought back so much of its stock…good investment, average/below avg company…
I was invested in a few insurance co before Chubb, Assurant, CNA Surety etc,i would look at the quality of their underwriting FIRST cause their investment portfolios gains will easily be offset by bad underwriting (don’t think insurance companies goes bankrupt cause their investment gains weren’t great… its the type of insurance they’re writing (mortgage, long tail castastrophe, extremely bad luck))…premium rates are actually tightening now due to the last few years of losses so insurance might be a good place to step into if you can find the value…i can’t at the moment…let me know if you find a name…
The way I see it is that I’m not really angling for growth, simply I’m thinking that I can pick up a lot of high quality assets at a significant discount to intrinsic value. As a result, even if BRK doesn’t grow at all and stays flat from here on out, I should still make a good return. WHy? - I think as long as Berk maintains an economic moat and generates cash flows, buybacks alone will generate a significant amount of per share growth in intrinsic value. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that financials are only one part of Berk now, and as a result growth in BV will not totally capture intrinsic value growth unlike before.
I think with Lowes, the same principle applies, we see decently growing firm that’s selling below breakup value. In a sense it’s more of a Graham style play rather than a Fisher one.
I’m unfortunately not knowledgeable enuf about insurance to make a judgement on the ones you mentioned. Will need to study that after CFA exam.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FB:US I appear to have been off by a factor of 2. Ahem. Well, then.
This is why I don’t trade stuff like facebook (just-for-laughs prediction != putting money into the company). Circle of competence, blah blah blah.
drum roll and it goes negative for the day… they tried hard to hold 38
I blame Greece!
I guess we could say Morgan Stanley priced it perfectly, or it was a disaster that only held $38 because the syndicate held it up. We’ll find out next week.
1999 it is not.
Frank do you drink Sam Adams? What do you think about their stock? I seriously considered buying it but hesitated and it had a big runup sadly. Seems like a good branded firm with lots of room to grow.
Whenever I look at the chart for SAM I kick myself for not buying it in spring of 09. It’s trading at 5x what is was in spring of 09.
That being said… I do enjoy a Sam Adams on occasion, but prefer other craft brews if I’m dropping the coin on something better than Coors Light.
never had Sam Adams…never looked at the stock…
so this whole FB madness is over now right? we can get on with our lives?..most annoying IPO in my short career so far…
Palantir, i agree with your BRK assessment, but remember BRK generates a sizesable share of its income from top notch insurance as well…i guess when you had Geico and Ajit running Reinsurance, you don’t have to worry as much…but from what i see, BRK’s insurance is head and shoulders above CNA at Lowes…
you can kick yourself for not buying EVERYTHING in the spring of 09 (once in a lifetime opportunities)…
mattress companies especially
actually, the european banks are trading at almost March '09 levels…i been buying…lol
This is a good point. On a day to day operations basis I believe Ajit is more important than Buffett for Berkshire. His departure may well end up being the bigger deal than Buffet’s…
How do you get around the potential exposure to PIGS sovereign debt and the risk that financial contagion presents. Or do you beleive that their is just such a huge margin of safety that the risk of writedowns/equity erosion is mitigated? Also, if you beleive thats the case, how do you assess that?
Im not trying to criticise or discredit you, I am actually just curious about your investment/thought process, as I find your philosphy very similar to mine.