What’s the call?
Will cut the rate
I think they’ll need more time. These events all happened so quickly. If they do cut it’ll only be 25bps. I highly doubt the FOMC governors will all be in agreement tomorrow.
I don’t think so. I think that at this stage they have to stand firm and take the position of “You guys got yourselves into this mess, you guys have to pay the price”. If they bail out too many of these interests, they’d have to bail them all out. Now will be a period of tough times for the regionals…I’m talking 8 to 10 belly ups over the next quater. Darwinian Natural Selection comes to Wall Street gents. Sorry. Willy
25 bips, and another bloodbath
They will cut. No doubt in my mind they will cut UNLESS they abandon Fed Funds targeting.
agree with willy, no cut, “markets are working” blah blah blah but keeping ammo if things get really ugly…
No cut, no reason to, companies are insolvent, 25 bps won’t solve that. Banks aren’t going to lend for 25 bps anyways.
I’m telling you gents. I do NOT think they will cut. The fact that they are letting Lehman die indicates to me that The Fed is finally going to teach some of these jokers a lesson. Willy
no cut
they will cut all right, it doesn’t cost taxpayer money, the current boss stays happy. no one wants to be a villain. ‘oil is down’ ‘economy downside’ excuse is ready. cut for sure
rohufish Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 25 bips, and another bloodbath I agree…but I hate it. This notion that an activist monetary policy can make things right got us into this problem to begin with.
no cut w/ bloodbath.
no cut…bloodbath…then rally late afternoon.
Come on gents. If Ben cuts rates then all hell will break loose. Willy
As if he has never done that before. I recall several unexpected rate cuts; including 3/4 point cut before the market opened on a Tuesday in January.
JDV, What about an activist Fed saying “You clowns got yourselves into this mess, you clowns get yourselves out”. “Our is to stablize GDP growth rates and if that means LEH and a few dozen regionals fail then tough shit”. Willy
I agree 100% with Willy’s train of thought, but my gut feeling is deja vu and they’ll cut the 25 to try and calm things.
Can’t cut 25, it’s only options are no cut and 50 bps. 25 is too much of a pussy move and everyone knows it. I’ll wait til I see the CPI to take a guess. A cut won’t do anything for the financial markets outside of confidence. They take 6-12 months to work their way into the economy. Probably more likely they announce additional liquidity measures or extend them.
futures market pricing in a small probability of cut as of yesterday. but most likely no easing will happen. just probably some random bs to try to stablize the market / confidence