Any Fed watchers out there, when do you think Heli Ben starts raising rates? My uninformed opinion: --rates have no chance of going up until we see some sustained job growth. --Ben might wait to raise rates through the running out of the stimulus and use then ensuing weak patch as an excuse to keep rates low. --on the other side, current rates are hyper stimulative and need to be moved to a rate more indicative of an early recovery (i.e. low 1’s) imo. Given this I see rates staying low (too low?) for an extended time as we saw in the early 2000s. Thoughts? when do we start to move and how fast once it starts – quarter points per meeting or more aggressive?
As soon as Ben raises rates what little recovery we have will come screeching to a halt. I do not see them raising rates for a long time. Even though doing that would be the smart thing to do. m
I think slow raising (25 BPS) very late this year (maybe the NOV/DEC meeting). Then I think mid-next year they’ll have to make the raises a little more hearty - that’s just a guess really though, I’d guess that the target rate will spend most of it’s time between 1-3% in 2011, and all of 2010 below 1%, ending the year between 50-100BPS.