Ben Bernanke=Arthur Burns
ChadD Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Side question: > > I read this statement from Dresdner Kleinwort at > FX Compass > “The market only attached a 36% probability to > this outcome beforehand, and the immediate > reaction was a weaker USD.” > > How is this 36% probability calculated? I’m > assuming with futures contracts. could be futures or options on futures. using options they use a implied PDF using LSE.
Just to clean up my earlier post: rates should have been raised, not lowered. 1. Less than 5% of total reserves are affected by FOMC operations. Please explain how a change in reserves, then, can have any affect other than one that is psychological. 2. Why are people assuming the inflation/GDP numbers that the government is supplying are correct? Does anyone do their own research on this?
Can you provide another GDP source to prove your recession theory? Thanks!
No