Feedback on this portfolio?

Would appreciate some feedback on the fixed income allocation. Yield is 4.15% and fees of 0.38% → Why would you not just dump this and buy 6 month treasury or HY muni?

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At least it ain’t 25k shares of PLTR

I’m actually not following the bond market. Are quality spreads tightening or widening? 4% treasury rates is still below long term averages of 6% imo. I think.

What’s the holding period? If it’s long enough (> 4 years), even I bonds might be better

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Actually that’s a great idea.

This is the time to buy 20-30y bonds and hold for a year or two until rates come back to 2% or less.
On the other hand, there are a lot of depreciated stocks that are priced for a sure recession and beaten down techs. However, the risk of choosing bad there is high, probably a basket of 20-30 stocks and low leverage would do better than bonds in a 2 years timespan.

Yep I diversified to roughly 34 stocks. I removed all etf indexes now. Im all in my stock picking ability lol

Any reason for SSO over UPRO? Desired exposure as 2x vs 3?

Planning some loss harvesting from SIVB, are you?

Just kidding, bro. Win some, lose some.

They were all in Ira. So yea lol didn’t matter.

SSO is an analyst forum favorite, believe the thesis is that 2x doesn’t lose as much to volatility decay as 3x and is thus accepted as a long term hold.

I haven’t been here in some time. Any detailed threads in particular you would point to or shall I search function? There was a seeking alpha article by Dane van Domelen who has a PhD in statistics and he did a nice introductory look at UPRO long term, but I hadn’t read much on SSO.

Assuming no Martingale or Black Swan events, under true long-term holding capabilities, I would go for TQQQ. When the nasdaq 100 touched 11,900 some weeks ago there it was the right moment to enter into TQQQ heavily. With 13K points now the entry price is not that appealing. If you can wait, wait for the recession, in the peak of maximum fear and gloom you drop all ur coins into TQQQ, UPRO, or a combination of both, you wait 10 years or before the next crisis and enjoy the benefits of a long term hold.

The other option is to gamble everything you have in an extreme out-of-the-money call on Tesla (strike at $500 expiring April 30th, 2023) and you may rip x1000 this very month. Either you become Trump or you get trumped.

Happy hunting.

This is the paper that gets linked occasionally talking about this topic.

I’d have responded sooner but these forum notifications get sent to my junk email folder, probably for the better.

The problem with a leveraged ETF is that in case of a crash, like 1929 (-85% from the peak), if you hold your UPRO throughout the long term, you would have to wait 80 years to recover your money.

There’s likely a blow up risk too.

You mean a total loss risk?

I like the stock