do you guys know of any boards where guys run regressions on football or basketball?
anyone?
.
No we usually prefer to watch the matches and derail our opponent’s team. If our team lose it is usually only because of exceptional disfavorable factors. We are still very good and worthy champions
Regression analysis much worse than just looking at the spread or the odds. Alas, it is just not a good way to predict sporting outcomes. Among the problems are: a) Sports outcomes are often decided by known individual factors (e.g., key player injury) that is not easily included in the regressions b) Outcomes are decided based on match-ups not individual team statistics c) Regression (and most statistical analyses) are about expected outcomes averaged over lots of [stuff]. Sporting events are often decided based on “key” events. Who cares how he rest of the team does if a WR has two steps on the cornerback all day long? d) Intangibles (and sometimes known intangibles) are important. Think the Giants gave it their all yesterday? Think everyone knew the Giants wouldn’t give it their all? Rather than spending a lifetime on regression analysis, you’re better off just calling up kkent and asking him who’s going to win.
JETS 
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Regression analysis much worse than just looking > at the spread or the odds. Alas, it is just not a > good way to predict sporting outcomes. Among the > problems are: > a) Sports outcomes are often decided by known > individual factors (e.g., key player injury) that > is not easily included in the regressions > b) Outcomes are decided based on match-ups not > individual team statistics > c) Regression (and most statistical analyses) are > about expected outcomes averaged over lots of . > Sporting events are often decided based on “key” > events. Who cares how he rest of the team does if > a WR has two steps on the cornerback all day > long? > d) Intangibles (and sometimes known intangibles) > are important. Think the Giants gave it their all > yesterday? Think everyone knew the Giants > wouldn’t give it their all? > > Rather than spending a lifetime on regression > analysis, you’re better off just calling up kkent > and asking him who’s going to win. Kkent will probably hit him very hard if he disagrees with him.
Try www.goonersguide.com They have an exceptional forum, and the moderator TheGooner runs statistical models on European Soccer leagues, NFL, etc.
Football Outsiders is a good site for all things NFL.
I wonder if he is an Arsenal fan this “TheGooner” you mention.
I don’t know of any boards like that, but I looked this morning and all of the road teams are favored in the wild card week. I’d bet all home teams with points next week, but I didn’t run any regression analysis to draw that conclusion.
2ndLuvGunner Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I wonder if he is an Arsenal fan this “TheGooner” > you mention. Spot on. Though called Goonersguide, the site/forum is not pro-Arsenal. In fact, supporters of virtually any famous club from all over the world are managing to get along just fine there.
check out sagarin ratings on usa today, or teamrankings.com for the kind of analysis you’re interested in… not sure of exact name, but SBR or something has a huge sports betting thread board. and tons of people do exactly what you’re asking about. the one poster was right that alot of hard-to-quantify items are present as well.