Forecasting example from real life.

Here is a real post from by a poster excusing his inability to forecast a stocks performance. What ‘ego defence mechanism’ (excuse) is the forecaster using? “As for predictions, they are based on “best current knowledge” and at the time I did not know (nor did the company) that they had a seller with the type of volume that has shown up, needing to divest themselves of it. That impacts not only the market movement itself, but also forces you to delay any potentially intended market promotion campaigns you might be considering (if you’re smart), at least until you have a handle on how much is there and when it is expected to stop.”

if-only defense?? If only the seller without that volume didn’t show up i would have been correct. that’s my thoughts - what’s everyone else think?

Maybe Ceteris Paribus…b/c he was saying it could have come true, if everything else was held constant… who knows.

hard to put real like examples into “CFA speak”…

this is tough one …i would say if -only

perhaps “ceteris paribus”. Anyway, it’a all Greek and Latin to me.