does anyone know a way to figure out the probability that a currency IE one of the middle eastern currencies, will be reval’d using forwards prices? i started by calculating what the premium/discount a 1 yr currency forward should be using the differential in 12m deposit rates vs the US. so im assuming the difference between where the actual fwd is trading and what ive calculated should be what is priced in in terms of reval? now i’m lost as to figuring out a “probability”?? joey D or anyone else have insight?
I think you should use option data not forward data. The forward data just gives you the difference between risk free rates which is not enough data.