First sign of QE Infinity to stop with strong Payrolls? (even though they are fake numbers)?
I’m surprised people are actually bidding up risky assets on good numbers. It’s been the other way around for the last few years. I guess everyone has come to the realization QE is here forever no matter what kind of data we get.
Dude, do the exact opposite of what Goldman tells you. I pretty much have never had any interaction with them where they did not want money somehow…
Yeah, was a joke.
Seriously is this market doing anything but going up? Fundamentals and data seem to not really matter anymore. Just up, up, and away…
I’ve never seen so many people pissed that they are making money. I mean, is everyone short or something? It’s called momo buddies, hang on for the ride
If I were making money this year I’d agree with you. I’m embarrased to say that I’m not one of them. My major long purchases this year where in stocks that sat out the rally. I guess I should just start allocating more to SPY and forget about it. This year has been off to an incredibly sh*tty start for me investing wise. Shocking when the S&P is up 10+%. I’m thinking more and more that I should just give up on stock selection and dollar cost average into SPY. My effing Roth IRA and 401k are doing better than my trading/taxable account.
If you are in derivatives trading like me, basically everyone around you is bearish. Reason is that vol increases when the market goes down, and you can make money from either m2m or from trading activity. So after a while, you get conditioned to associate market falling with good feelings. Pretty sure this is why lockheed has a nervous breakdown whenever SPX goes up 1%.
I still like it when market goes up… Maybe means I suck at my job (?).
I get confused when I hear that fundamentals don’t seem to matter anymore. Aren’t corporate profits at all-time highs? The S&P 500 is trading at something like 14x earnings, which is neither terribly high or low when viewed from a historical perspective. Based on earnings, the market seems to be neither overly cheap or expensive.
I agree that the unemployment numbers are BS, and we aren’t even adding enough jobs to keep up with population growth. But it’s also not new that the unemployment rate is a BS statistic, it’s always been flawed. So if it’s always been a dicked-up stat, wouldn’t it stand to reason that the market would react favorably to increased hiring?
NOT a good way to go into the weekend if this is the daily trend. Wow, first tick below the a/d line… took almost an hour.
It’s a game of musical chairs, as long as it keeps playing, interest rates are low, everyone is happy and dancing, looking for more yield in risky asset land.
It’s a trend game. Bearish folks that have been burned have to reverse positions, fueling the valuations more.
The fed’s new wording should provide some caution. Dramatic reversal one day…
All time high corporate profits today can’t be expected to continue since it is a result of lower headcount and US gov’t giveaways to middle class.
What happens when unemployment benefits, tax loopholes, artificial manipulation of US treasuries and interest rate shenanigans disappear??
The only reason stocks are up is because people can’t make shit on bonds (thanks to the Fed). Not even considering money market funds as an investment option anymore… if you have money parked there then you are just retarded.
Well, the really important question is what happens when margins roll over, which appears to already be the trend (particularly in tech). Corporate profits are very sensitive to margins (obviously), so they can be more important than GDP growth, especially if we remain at around 2-3% for the next year or two.
@ZB - definitely agree that record corporate profits can’t continue forever, but when will it end? next quarter? next year? 5 years? Unless you can identify this point, my point is trying to short the top of the market is generally a recipe for disaster, particularly when the fundamentals don’t suggest a reversal in the near term.
DOW 15000. Now above 15000. Rolled my shorts till next Friday’s expiry, after sh—ting in them.
It just looks weird. “15000?”
I’m going to poop, shower, shave, and then take a nap. Wake me up when Dow hits 50,000 around 330pm. Peace.
Sounds like a nice friday. Why do you want a job again?
Shiller P/E: 23 (+ 1.12%)
Shiller P/E is 39.4% higher than the historical mean of 16.5 S&P 500: 1615.49
Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 18.67 +0.20 (1.09%) 3:39 pm EDT, Fri May 3 Mean 15.49 Median 14.50
???
^I’m curious, over what time period are you calculating your mean and median? My guess would be that your stats go back to early 1900’s. I’m almost certain that today’s S&P 500 PE ratio is near the low of the last 15 years, and it’s a fraction of the level it was at circa 2000. My point is that based on the tenor of certain comments on this board, you would think the sky should be falling, when in reality, based on earnings the market is not trading at unreasonable levels.
Presumably, the data is from here:
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
Of course, high P/E can have two meanings: 1) Price is too high, or 2) Earnings will increase. So if stock prices are a leading indicator for earnings, possible that the P/E does not indicate market direction in this case.