# going 3 for 3 on the exams

just curious if ppl know what the % is of candidates who go 3 for 3. ive heard 15% but was just wondering what others have heard. reason i ask is i’ll be attempting to do so in june.

Good for you.

Given .34 x .42 x .50 (est), then 7%.

attempting 3 for 3 in june… but i’ve barely done any work

yea, you are welcome to try

That will understate the percentage, as it assumes zero correlation between test outcomes.

What do you mean by that?

Wouldn’t there also be an offsetting bias that people that have retaken it are more prepared? Thus making the 7% actually higher than actual 1st time takers?

I heard the % is 0. That means you will fail, sorry.

Btw, just to be sure, to does “3 for 3” mean passing the tests in 3 years or in 3 sittings?

.34 x .42 x .5 implies independent events.

if somebody passed 1 and 2 at their first sitting, id assume they have a better (or at least a different) chance of passing 3

… this is embarassing

Multiplying the pass rates together just gives you the percentage of people that pass all 3 exams, and it is flawed in several ways. One, although there aren’t going to be large swings, this assumes you are taking Levels I, II, and III all at the same time, as the rate will change each year. To be correct you would need to multiply the pass rate of Level I at t-2 by the pass rate at LII at t-1 by the pass rate of Level III at t-0. Even then, you don’t know how many of those passing are re-takers, it’s just the amount that passed at that particular time.

Gotta better way to figure this out?

Btw, those figures (.34 and .42) were the actual results for my particular may specific path, so it is T x (T+1).

im going for 3/7

going for 3/5

Can you detail your attempts?

They said 20% of people that start, finish. So I would guess ~10% do 3/3.

Not only am I trying for 3/3, but I’m going the hard route. Took L1 in Dec, L2 the following June. My first baby’s due date was same day as L1 (luckily came 4 days after), 2nd baby’s due date will be a few weeks after L3.

Wait… What? That’s like saying a bird shat on that house, So I would guess it’s going to flood tomorrow

3 sittings. as in did level 1 december 2010, level 2 in june 2011 and level 3 this june.

Sure

1st level one - last year Uni, didn’t really study

2nd level one - passed

1st level two - failed

2nd level two - passed

1st level three - didn’t study, it was new job and wedding

2nd level three - didn’t study at all

3rd level three - started studying this week! wish me luck