I consider to long gold(GLD) for 6 months not only due to the high tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran but also China slowdown.

What do you think about short term movements in gold market?

So far gold just hasn’t really performed as well as people would have expected to. It seems it would take a major credit or currency crisis in the emerging markets to really push gold upwards and even then the movement would likely be minor. It appears you can find better ways to take advantage of your thesis.

Yuan,Brasilian Real,Rubble,Turkish Lira already tumbled against US Dollar and these emerging markets have been facing serious major problems in their economy.However,the gold prices have been sluggish so far.

I want to do gold trading…can any one help me out which trading company should i opt for…? i have been suggested…Is this trading company is worth for gold trading…? Please if any one have any ideas…care to discuss here…

Gold has been a great investment in my local currency. Unfortunately I only have a small allocation to it.

I’d suggest buying commonly traded physical bullion over an ETF that’s backed with futures contracts. The entire premise of owning gold is to eliminate all counter party risk, essentially a long-put against the “system”.

Additionally, be prepared for a long-term investment horizon with a non-compounding return.

This. Build your stack.

Isnt the GLD backed mostly by bullion? I know they have a creation/destruction feature of shares where you can exchange bars for shares to keep the valuation in line.

As a rule of thumb I myself always recommend my friends keep no less than 1,500 Troy Ounces of gold in the Swiss storage for a rainy day.

You have been a member for over 2 years, and this is your first post? Interesting

No, it’s not. It’s not as bad as SLV, but both are a house of cards. It’s been a couple years since this was relevant, but I’ve written several posts on here about GLD and SLV. Too lazy to rehash or look them up.

The tl;dr version is - GLD and SLV are probably going to be fine. However, if you own precious metals as a hedge against financial meltdown, you’ll never see your “gold” or “silver” if/when the shit hits the fan. You ultimately just own paper.

I have revived an old new years resolution to engage the working class.

Interesting, cant say I have looked into them much nor thought of investing in them. Always was skeptical of gold in general because if stuff really hits the fan, no one will be interested in your largely useless gold.

By the way,I wrote this post in order to discuss the price movements in Gold.I would be more satisfied if you post your comments about politics,global economies and financial markets which will affect gold prices this year.

Thanks in advance.

Gold is extremely complicated to predict. Two of the primary drivers of gold’s price are interest rates and inflation, which are two of the hardest variable to predict in all of finance.

How much do you know about the market already? Are you completely new to the precious metal market? Do you know the pros and cons to gold vs silver? Do you have a geopolitical outlook already and want to know how I think gold will react?

I’ve been investing/trading in precious metals (and miners) for about 10 years and I can’t begin to form an answer based on such an open-ended question. You should read up on various gold blogs and learn about supply/demand, central bank policies (who’s buying most of the gold), why people invest in gold, what factors move the price (there are many, many variables), and then come back with a starting point for discussion.

The advice I can give someone just starting out is this: you’ll find three basic groups of people when it comes to discussions on gold. 1) Value investors hate gold. They’ll talk about the lack of predictive cash flows and no dividend payments (i.e. they can’t model it and therefore can’t understand it). Dismiss these people out of hand. They’ll be of no help to you. 2) People like me that aren’t insane and view gold/silver as viable investments and trades provided you have a good grasp of the market. And, 3) Gold bugs. These guys can be dangerous (on multiple levels, really). They believe gold is what’s going to save the world and if you don’t own physical gold there will be a time when a zombie will eat your brain. Typically, they don’t offer great investment advice. So, try to steer clear of 1 and 3.

In the meantime, do some of your own due diligence. Read Zerohedge (with a grain of salt), read Peter Schiff (again, grain of salt), read Max Keiser, TF Metals Report, and so on. Realize all these sites are pro-gold so you’ll need to come at it with a skeptical eye. But, if you are able to wade through their extremism bullshit, there’s some really good info there you’ll never find on the major news outlets.

All that said, I’m not a buyer of gold or silver right now. I’ve had a price target of $800 on gold for a long time now and I’m still happy with that. Silver is much closer to being an attractive investment. Long-term, silver below $14 is a good buy. But, I’d like to see the global economy on better footing before I go all in. My only position currently is long SLW. I’ve been actively trading that for a while now until PM prices and other variables fall into a place I like.

Edit: Also, your comment about ETFs vs physical is inaccurate. You don’t have to buy a 1oz bar. Gold comes in all shapes and sizes. As far as storage goes, if this is for you personally, you’ll never own more than what will fit in a shoebox. Get a small lockbox and put it in there. If you want to hold gold as a long-term investment, buy the physical. End of story. If you want to trade it (and you can do both - I do), buy the ETF since that’s obviously the only way you’re going to be able to do so in a brokerage/IRA account.

Slowdowns are not the time to own gold. When things are going down in price all over, the price of gold tends to go down too. Now if you think things are going to get better, then you might choose to buy in a downturn, because that’s how you’ll get a low buy-in price, just don’t expect it to appreciate until things get better and people have more disposable income to buy shiny things like gold.

If you are facing inflation, gold might not be a bad thing to buy, but other things might do just as well or better. if the inflation is moderate, relatively steady, and not unpredictable, stocks also do well. Inflation tends to happen in growing economies that are overheating, although there are other circumstances too, such as supply shocks, or pegged currencies that can’t adjust properly. If the economy is overheating, gold can do well vs other options, but remember that many central banks will slam on the brakes when they see it happening.

People go crazy over gold when they decide that they don’t trust central banks to stop increasing the money supply and at least some part of the market thinks that hyperinflation is imminent. It tends to be a good thing to have if that turns out to be true, but remember that governments have been known to order people to turn in their gold for currency and make owning more than a certain amount illegal, so having a shoebox full of the stuff isn’t necessarily going to save you unless zombies are really at the door, and in those cases, food, ammo, and a neighbor with tasty brains who runs slower than you might be more valuable…

STL also has a really good post. Recommend you read it.

I didn’t realize that STL’s gold price target was $800. I kept thinking it was $1200, which had me wondering if he was accumulating now… When and why did that change?

It’s been a while since we last discussed it and I can’t remember exactly what I put down here and what I’ve had swimming around in my head. IIRC I was getting interested below $1,200 but thought it could very well fall to $800. Wasn’t going to buy at $1,200 (and didn’t) unless some things fell into place and provided solid footing (they haven’t).

Nothing has really changed, which is why I’m still on the sidelines. The primary factor I’m concerned about is the dollar. It’s way too high for my liking. Interest rates don’t concern me too much, nor does geopolitical unrest. Inflation expectations are still too low too. Although, I’d like to get in gold before those start to rise. That part is tricky though…

First of all thank you for your response.

Based on your comments,I will check out the G-20 central bank policies.On the other hand,I don’t have enough time to read any book relative to gold since I just started writing my CFA.By the way,I don’t have any idea about silver,all I know about precious metal market is the prices are going up when there is a panic in the financial markets.

I studied a little about correlation between S&P,oil and gold,surprisingly I figured out there is a strong correlation between oil and gold in recent years.Maybe you want to mention something about it.

Finally,ETF makes more sense to me since it is so easy to buy and sell.However,for long term investment you are right I will buy the pyhsical.