Good reads on mental models and psychology

These are old, but still very relevant: Sorry ahead of time if you get offended (he insults investment banking and management consulting), but they are still fantastic reads and will help you make more rational business decisions (and probably save you money on services). Enjoy.

Thanks Ali, I’m reading through Mungers Worldly Wisdom right now.

Mungers book will give you some additional material Influence by Cialdini would be helpful I think many times we keep looking for more information, but do not necessarily incorporate what we have. What you have read is 80% of it, the harder part is to make it a part of your everyday life. So that next time you hear something, you automatically start thinking about incentives and other tendencies etc. Or practice, take Madoff and see why he did what he did, which tendencies, biases were involved so that it becomes second nature…

bsivia, did you find any good tight gas prospects for investment? (I follow your blog). I’m thinking now is a good entry into a American E&P with low F&D costs, something along the lines of XTO, but smaller in size…

What is your blog address bsivia? I’d be interested in reading it. Thanks.

hey, i found this company in the called Birchcliff Energy (in Canada). They have a good asset base and Seymour Schulich (prominent canadian investor) has a 25% stake. It is a very interesting. I do not have a position thou (no cash and it is a litttllleee expensive for me right now)…do your own DD if you have any feedback let me know… i write at, its not much but thanks for the interest…

bsivia, what’s your email?

its bsivia at gmail dot com

I’ve actually built my own model of Birchcliff and they do have an excellent asset base and high insider ownership. Their recent equity financing should provide them with some additional breathing room and their expanded capex plans should be beneficial. In my opinion they are still trading at a premium valuation relative to their peers and so I agree they are too expensive right now. If they can execute their capital program and gas prices miraculously strengthen then it should be a win as they are currently unhedged.

Montney/Doig play-all this stuff is very completions-driven. Worsley light oil (I’d imagine a waterflooding operation) right? Their stuff is all near Pouce Coupe. Do you have an average F&D $/mcf cost metric from your model kcin?

Three year F&D costs of $6.19/boe P+P (6.4x recycle ratio) and $9.64/boe P+P including changes in FDC’s (3.6x recycle ratio). These are definitely below average relative to its peers with very good recycle ratios. They also have a very long reserve life index but of course their ability to self finance their future capital programs (which will be large) is currently limited by their above average leverage.

email me kcin, looks like you know the company…i’ve written a little about it, leme know what you think… aliman, check your email