Grinold-Kroner Question (2009 exam)

in the 2009 AM exam:

Exhibit 1 U.K. Capital Market Data Historical Data (past 100 years) Equity compounded annual growth rate (%) 11.2 Equity risk premium (%) 5.3 Dividend yield (%) 4.0 Equity repurchase yield (%) –0.5 Nominal earnings growth return (%) 4.6 Current and Forward Looking Data Current equity price-to-earnings ratio 14.6 Expected equities real earnings growth rate (%) 2.7 Expected long-term inflation rate (%) 2.5 A. Determine, using the information in Exhibit 1 and the Grinold-Kroner model, the component sources of the historical nominal return for U.K. equities: i. income return ii. earnings growth iii. repricing return _____ ii. earnings growth they say is given at 4.6%. I see how this could be the case by why is it also not right to add the expected i + g = 2.7 + 2.5 = 5.2?

They gave you the nominal growth ratew which is historical. GK uses expected inflation and expect growth so I’m not sure.

They are asking you to “calculate the component sources of the HISTORICAL nominal return,” so you use the historical data given. Adding 2.7 & 2.5 would be used if you needed to calculate expected, forward-looking returns.

because they specifically asked for the historical components, not what is to be expected in the future.

Please read the question carefully. It is asking for “historical nominal return for U.K. equities” so you should be using 4.6% fo i+g.

ahh those little words are tricky!


Btw, Equity compounded annual growth rate (%) here means Equity price compounded annual growth rate (%)?

It would mean total return. If you subtract the income component and the nominal earnings growth component from the equity compounded annual growth rate, you’ll get the repricing (p/e expansion) component… I believe