How come things like Market Cap aren’t included on this?
Anybody getting in on the action?
Market Cap is apparently around 18 billion. This won’t stick.
Best short of 2012…
i don’t know man, i think this thing is going to do well.
The growth for this company is starting to slow and with all the red flags in the prospectus it should be a good short. I am waiting to see what the prices are on the options first though.
I just read a post by Damodaran. He put up his own calculation for the share value, and while he admits he doesn’t have any special insight into the company, the numbers don’t look good. http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-04/groupon-taps-top-silicon-valley-bankers-to-defy-ipo-skeptics.html Something like 12B?
Even so if the market cap of it is 18 billion its not like its got 100 percent upside. No way its a 36 billion dollar company. Could definitely go to zero though over a few years. I like this kind of asymmetry especially in the face of all the economic problems we have. I’m sure put options will cost a fortune. This was my pet peeve with LNKD and why I only went a little short on it and way out of the money. Those options are just starting to make money finally. I’d actually like it if GRPN does well for a while and beats up the shorts and beats down the put options value.
Agree, that’s why I say 2012…let’s see some Ks and Qs. Little known fact: retail spending is at an all time high, despite dismal consumer confidence.
Here’s what we know: Horrible corporate governance? Check. No barriers to entry? Check. No brand loyalty? Check. Google entering the market? Check. Yeah, have fun with that one longs. Still won’t short since it’ll be too expensive. May buy some puts dated a year or so out though.
Those year out puts will cost you 15 bucks I bet.
The only way I’d do it is if we get a huge market rally and GRPN gets lifted up with. If I smell any sort of euphoria around the stock I’ll buy some puts. Not sure we’ll ever get there though.
I’d say we have some euphoria right now, the problem is everyone is going to know it. That’s why for a good short you need the numbers to continue on the same track or only decelerate slightly. I really haven’t been following this, but I’m assuming there is no guidance as of now. You need them to put out some impressive numbers to convince some people that there really is a long term growth story here that justified the valuations. Every person on this thread said they would short…tough to make money with a consensus view. I know someone who subscribed to this looking for the pop. Now they are in an interesting position…if you owned shares, when would you sell?
Euphoria right now? The top story on Marketwatch’s ticker is “Groupon IPO Soars Defying Skeptics.” And, as you said, there’s a consensus that everyone wants to be short. That’s pretty much the opposite of euphoria. I’m talking about if this stock becomes a momentum darling and people start discussing it along the same vein as CMG. That’s euphoria. I completely agree though. Very hard to make money when everyone has the same idea. Besides, can’t short now anyway.
Too much competition - no barriers to entry. Everyone’s got one of these sites now.
I’m a contrarian, I’m looking for excuses to go long on this stock. Any ideas?