Guys has the financial crisis ended … ??? is this a BUY BUY BUY … or an opportunity to sell …
Nope.
madanalyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Guys has the financial crisis ended … ??? is > this a BUY BUY BUY … or an opportunity to sell > … Wait until after the election before anything.
umm… no?
Tomorrow we will see another drop in the stock market…
Stop watching Cramer.
what the next president can do? … i dont think president is a giglo … who can mesmarize the world back into american order … or is it palin that can … shake (private) hands with the rest of the world … ??
Is this even a serious question? Can you point to a single metric/indicator that would suggest that this crisis is even close to being resolved?
i dont know … thats why i am asking people … my broker told me that … markets are looking good now and things are way cheaper than they should be … and it is a once in life opportunity …
I wouldn’t be buying until such time as the BKX [S&P Banking sub-index] outperforms the broader S&P500 for a period of at least 3 weeks…possibly 1-2 months given whats been going on. I mean this IS bad. Willy
madanalyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > my broker told me that … markets are looking > good now and things are way cheaper than they > should be … and it is a once in life opportunity > … That’s what all brokers say. What did you think he is going to tell you to do? Sell everything and get rid of his services?
And use stink bids. The stinkier the better. I"m shocked at some of these things. I guess the short sellers are back now.
Yep. It’s over. No worries from here.
Dwight Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > madanalyst Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > my broker told me that … markets are looking > > good now and things are way cheaper than they > > should be … and it is a once in life > opportunity > > … > > That’s what all brokers say. What did you think > he is going to tell you to do? Sell everything > and get rid of his services? Don’t ask your barber if you need a haircut. - Warren Buffett
I don’t find it strange that a Broker would say that at all, those guys are just looking for another trade. I really find it hilarious that they can make these generic statements like “This is a huge opportunity” without provide specific advice on when and why to get back in. I’m tellling my clients look, its bad and here’s what I’m looking for to get back in. Are you with me? Willy
The center of gravity in the Panic of 2008 is Europe. The panic is not over because we have yet to see the capitulation event in that region.
I’m not a technical analysis guy but how often do you see these “parabolic” type moves in prices stick?
Who cares about parabolic moves? The NASDAQ fell 76% from peak to trough as the tech bubble unwound. Where are we right now? It’s down only 38%. Rule for beating a Panic (from Shultz, Panics & Crashes 1976) “1. Never Underestimate its size. Don’t calculate what a “reasonable response” is. Calcuate rather to what extent man is prepares to destroy himself before his reaction to the situation has run its course. 2. The second rule, which particularly applies today, is: Never underestimate the power of the politician. Once can say when a balloon has gone past the safety level in size, but it is difficult to predict when it will burst. This is the way the politicians’ modern attempt at “permanent prosperity” seems to be working. In times of panic one has to cease to be an investor and become a psychologist. Values of shares, price/earnings ratios, stocks looking cheap, etc., mean very little or nothing. The only thing that matter is the panic-factor in human nature.” Wise words indeed.
This market is definitely being driven by psychological factors (fear, mostly) more than fundamentals, but as Soros pointed out with his theory of reflexivity, psychological factors can become real factors. The issue is that if there is a mild panic, the sensible strategy is to rebalance and take advantage of low prices. If there is a severe panic, the sensible strategy is to get out entirely. But the severe panic then makes things even worse to the extent that fundamentals are impacted - a company that can weather a mild panic may not be able to weather a severe panic, because so much value will be destroyed that future solvency and earnings are affected. So even if a panic starts out as purely a behavioral issue, it turns into something that affects fundamentals. As a result, thinking that “it’s just in their heads, I know what’s really happening” doesn’t help, makes things more complex, and can even exacerbate panic. In this case, I’d definitely use technical indicators to make decisions. In fact, this has started to crystalize a part of my own investment philosophy that one might want to use the idea of long term mean reversion in your strategic asset allocation, technical indicators for your tactical asset allocation, and then a market neutral (and possibly sector neutral) strategy for security selection.