Have we reached a bottom?

CFA General
#1

Didn’t see the question asked today.

#2

Because it goes up a bit today.

#3

Because it goes up a bit today.

#4

Its a Buffett induced bottom.

#5

I think the better question is, have we seen the top? That is, when will be the next time the Dow hits 14,000. My answer is many years from now.

#6

I do think this market is a bit oversold, so I think we will have a fairly rapid rebound to where prices were a couple months ago is likely. Recovery beyond that will be slow due to the damage done to both the US and global economy.

#7

I suspect we are at a temporary bottom and moving to a bear market rally. Once the auto and credit card stuff has been flushed down the toilet, we can talk about a bottom. There’s also the CDS problem, but I have no idea how that will play out.

#8

agreed with bchadwick. i think we will bottom out more like early next year. the worst is yet to come!!!

#9

Of the 143 bottoms I’ve called I believe the most recent one is the one. Do you think the market doesn’t know about credit cards and auto loans yet? I think the market is only inefficient, at best, on small & mid cap stocks. CFAI thinks that way, too. Warren Buffett thinks that way. Please convince me otherwise.

#10

numi Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > agreed with bchadwick. i think we will bottom out > more like early next year. the worst is yet to > come!!! numi, by this do you mean that we are going to fall more 40% again or just that we haven’t hit the bottom yet?

#11

I agree with virginCFAhooker on bottom #17 from last Friday’s thread. . . but who knows, next year could be a ‘fun one’

#12

virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Of the 143 bottoms I’ve called I believe the most > recent one is the one. Do you think the market > doesn’t know about credit cards and auto loans > yet? Yes. The market has constantly been wrong about credit exposure for the last year and a half. Of course, with history and retrospection, I guess that’s easier to say…but, until I see otherwise, I won’t believe that we’re anywhere near the bottom. As for whether the market tumbles another 40%, mwvt9, it won’t. Capitulation will happen well before then. All I’m saying is that things will get worse before they get better, so hang on tight…

#13

bum bitty boom boom

#14

I’m out on a limb here - two years from now, the market will be lower than it is now.

#15

I agree with Joey though I wish it were not the case. The market fundamentals won’t improve until this housing market gets better, until the MBS, credit CDO mess are cleared. Now they are talking about the bailout is not going to work while taxpayers are stuck with a huge bills.

#16

bum bitty boom boom

#17

JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I’m out on a limb here - two years from now, the > market will be lower than it is now. Seeing as the stock market is a leading and forward indicator, does that mean the economy will take another 4-5 years to rebound?

#18

The problem is that most of the time the market PRICE actually goes UP before the so-called outlook improves! Fear is a good predictor of the bottom.

#19

I’ve been a-feared for quite a while and it hasn’t worked very well at signaling a bottom.

#20

former trader Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > JoeyDVivre Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I’m out on a limb here - two years from now, > the > > market will be lower than it is now. > > > Seeing as the stock market is a leading and > forward indicator, does that mean the economy will > take another 4-5 years to rebound? Yes, at best