# Help! Probability of Going 3/3???

I know this has been discussed before, but does anyone have any source for the percentage of people that have passed the CFA while going 3/3? Other stats, such as average time to complete the CFA or percentage who enroll and eventually finish would be useful. Thanks for the help.

No. That information does not exist. If I had to guess though I’d say approximately half of everyone who passes Level 1 goes 3 for 3. That would put the % somewhere around 20% of level 1 candidates.

take the joint prob of the pass rates. around 7%

When I took the tests the pass rates were .40, .40, .53, respectively. But it’s hard for me to believe that only 8.4% of people that started with me went 3/3. I would think that the percentage would be higher…closer to Danteshek’s estimate of 20%. I’m smart enough to pass the CFA, but not smart enough to figure this stuff out…damn.

i had done this calc in another thread somewhere…search under my id for ‘probability’ or something.

Hmmm, I don’t think that you can take the joint prob because the events are not independent - ie repeaters on L2 & L3 are included in the 2nd & 3rd year %s. Need to dust off my stats books though…

if the events were random, then you coulod take joint probability. however there is conditional probabilty where if you pass level 1 first time, I would assume you are more likely to pass level 2 first time then someone who failed level 1 at least once. and even greater if you pass level 1&2 first time the probability is greater then passing level 3 first time then taking level 3 pass rate of 53%. I would guess, b/.c that’s what we are left with: 3for3 from all candidates that sign up for level 1 would be 8-12% and all charterholders would probably be 25-30% with a confidence interval of 100% side note: I work with 6 other charterholders of the 7 of us: 6 for 7 went 3/3

How many of the 6 went 3/3 in eighteen months? And do the six repeatedly remind the odd one out that he doesn’t have inferior ability?

I think DanteShek was about right. They say 20% of the people who start the program finish it, and for the most part, it seems like half of the people who get the charter get it without failing an exam. I am not sure what the big deal is, whether someone goes 3 for 3, or 3 for 5, or 3 for 9

Yes. I agree. The 3 events are not independent. So can not just multiply them like that. One key information missing is how likely some one will repeat at each level. They do annouce number of people taking level 1, but there is no way to know how many are new candidates and how many are repeating candidates. I guess we will never know for sure.

I think if you take 39% pass rate for Dec 06, 40% pass rate for June 07 , 53% for June 08 then the probability would be around 8% just my 2 cents on it any comments?

For some people, 0%. For others, 100%.

The 8% figure is a sensible start, but is almost certainly too low. If you pass L1 on the first try, the odds are probably higher that you pass L2 on the first try, and if you are 2/2 the odds are higher still that you pass L3 on the first try. So maybe 10-15 percent of those who sign up for L1 go 3/3. Remember, not all who pass L1 are doing so on the first try.

The 8% figure is a sensible start, but is almost certainly too low. If you pass L1 on the first try, the odds are probably higher that you pass L2 on the first try, and if you are 2/2 the odds are higher still that you pass L3 on the first try. So maybe 10-15 percent of those who sign up for L1 go 3/3. Remember, not all who pass L1 are doing so on the first try.

you wouldn’t be asking the question if you haven’t already gone 2/2. So if you’ve already passed 2/2, then the odds of going 3 for 3 are significantly better than the L3 pass rate (which includes L3 repeaters) - so probably at least 75%.

i would say that 10% of a random selection of people walking into the test center for Level 1 for the first time will go 3 for 3. of those people that actually passed all 3 exams, the probability is in the 25-35% range.