How are you feeling?

CFA Level II
#1

On 7th June one of my relatives asked me about the probablity of me passing this exam.My answer was 98%.

Today if i were to answer the same question…I will say i have 70% chance of passing.

So what is your gut feeling about your chances of killing it on 29th July?

I wonder if the probablity of success in CFA exams is an increasing or decreasing function of time.One of my friends thought he had 50% probablity of passing the exam on 7th June…Yesterday he told me his probablity has increased to 70%…Clearly some people become more optimistic about their chances between 7th June and 29th July…while for others like myself it is a different story…

#2

Shut up, rahul.

#3

LOL…But why?

#4

why the huge decline? you were reviewing and realized what you thouht was right was actually wrong?

#5

LOL…I haven’t reviewed any thing after the exam…In fact now i hardly remember anything that appeared in the exam…I just have a gut feeling that there is a 70% chance of me passing this exam on 29th July…

#6

This isn’t unusual. I went through the same thing after all three tests. Get used to it - you’ve got at least one more test.

#7

Just relax RR. Go outside, have a life

#8

Right after taking L1 I thought for sure I would have to retake it. This improved until the result day when I thought to myself - I might actually have fair chance to pass this one.

Pretty similar this time. For me I think I tend to remember the questions that I know I messed up - and this memory fades away with time. As a result, I don’t view the entire experience as negative.

In the end it doesn’t matter either way though.

#9

I feel worse after seeing 300 hours had last year’s MPS in the 65-67% range. The only way I passed is if the MPS is high 50s/low 60s or if I was really lucky with my guesses. There were just too many questions where I had no clue. For 5 and 10% topics they nailed my weaknesses. Not saying I was great to begin with in CF, FI, PM, Econ, Quant, AI, but there were a lot of concepts and a decent amount of formulas I knew. I kept thinking the next question will be one that suits me, but alas another question that was esoteric to me. No excuses though, it was my fault for not knowing enough.

#10

+1

#11

I think on 29 th July 8.59 AM- My gut feeling will tell me that i have 50% chance to pass CFAL2…lol

#12

I think the MPS will be 63%-67% .

#13

Easy to say but difficult to implement…

#14

Rahul, you are lucky you feel this way… It is always beneficial to underestimate your probability of passing. Obviously, it doesn’t change the outcome but your reaction to the pass/fail is better in both scenarios. You pass, it’s pure elation as it wasn’t a given. You fail, you’re not as heartbroken since you saw it as a legitimate possibility. Imagine if you thought you passed for sure and failed… Unfortunately for my psyche, I face this possible scenario for L3…

#15

+1

#16

Objection: assumes facts not in evidence.

#17

Sustained! Please continue IsThereAny.

-Judge

#18

For me, it’s a decreasing function of time. I try to not think about the CFA result as much as possible otherwise I become paranoid.

#19

as days go by, i feel like i don’t give a damn anymore, but it turn 180 the day before the result.

#20

I feel the same way… I initially expected more than 95% probability of passing. Today, that’s down to 50%

For some reason I’m not stressing about it at all. I’m not even counting the days, but I expect my anxiaty level to shoot to the sky on July 29th