How do you think the pass rate breaks out?

with the pass rate in the last few years around 50%… (to keep things simple) I think its something like 33% or 25% of first timers pass and 75% pass on subsequent attempts…

also the passing rate must vary widely by region (IF you assume they dont hancicap scores to promote the designation in developing countries). if the AM section is difficult for native english speakers, it amazes me people foreigners can get through the exam at all.

where do you know these numbers from?

pure speculation, but obviously there is more to the data than what the CFAI releases…

age/ gender/ region/ first language/ primary occupation

im sure there are anomolies also… like a test center where everyone passed/failed or the lowest score ever

I’m skeptical that the retakers have 75% pass rate. If anything, I’d even argue that it could be lower than the first-time takers.

I have no data to back up my claim, but just like how second marriage has higher chance of ending in divorce (third being even higher), and how criminals with repeated offence are more likely to go back to jail, I’d assume second-time takers are more likely to not pass.

Not necessairly a causational relationship in any of the examples mentioned, but just a strong correlation. Just a thought.

I would think highest pass rate would be of those who passed Level 1 and 2 first try. I don’t think the probability of passing all 3 exams is as simple as pass_rate_1*pass_rate_2*pass_rate_3. There is a conditional probability for levels 2 and 3 that is probably higher than average pass rate for those who passed prior exam on first attempts. So probably first-time takers who passed 1&2 first try > retakers > remaining first-time takers

Logically, first time takers should have the least chance of passing.

Ill assume it will be 53%

Too many assumptions in this statement with no support.

It will be 54% this year so the first time writers will get a good kick at the can =)

I think you mean intuitively, not logically wink

Logical - learning twice and considering that the topics does not change should enhance the chances. Refusing to see the logic is a type of behavioral bias… Not sure which?!

So we cant agree on if 1st timers or retakers have a higher pass rate?

My guess is that its 33% pass on first try and 50% pass on second try… with another group maybe 10% that will never pass level 3 (because they give up eventually)

I think people shorter than 5’ are 4x as likely to pass

You guys are exhibiting representative bias, specifically sample bias. The sample used to represent the population of all test takers is not the same as the sample used to represent the population of re-takers. Logically, re-takers should be more prepared and perform better than how they, themselves, did on prior attempts, but not when compared to all first-time test takers. In fact, intuitively, first time test takers most likely perform better on average compared to re-takers because they are made up of less failures (100% of re-takers are failures, and some are multiple failures). First time test takers do have failures, they just don’t know it yet and it’s going to be less than 100%.

I still don’t think your points prove out whether first timers are likely to perform better than retakers. Assuming half the L3 candidates are first timers and half are retakers. How does the fact that one passed L1 and L2 on the first try make them more likely to pass L3 on this try compared to individuals who have the experience of taking the exam?

I would guess that it’s probably pretty close in terms of first timers vs retakers. The first timers, as you cite, are probably the overall ‘brighter’ group as a whole…but the retakers have the advantage of experiences. Seems to me it would roughly even out…maybe I’m wrong though.

No conclusion found on this thread or most threads on AF can be substantiated without CFAI changing the type of information it releases. In reality, we’re all just discussing these theoretical what-if’s to pass the time between the exam and results. I can prove that by counting how many of these threads exist and are contributed to before the exam and after results are released than during the long, agonizing wait.

I disagree with that assessment. I passed L1 and L2 on the first try with a good margin on both yet failed band 10 L3 last year. I had become a bit lazy in the few days ahead of the exam as I felt confident I knew the material enough to pass. I thought I did well in the exam and was shocked to have failed. This year I upped my game and my studying significantly having experienced failure for the first time and now knowing that I could very well fail and that - at least for me - level 3 was not easier than 2 or 1 as I had thought.

So overall, I think I have an advantage compared to first time takers. I studied harder and better knowing what to expect. I dont see why a first time taker who passed L1 and L2 on the first try should have an advantage over me who had done the same thing before the exam last year. For these reasons I do believe that re-takers have a slight advantage at least and probably a higher passing rate but there are no rules and I am sure that the essay fits some people better than others independently of wether they are re-takers or first takers.

random sample, which would you bet on, 1st or 10th?

In theory retakers have more (real) experience of the actual exam process and also have the fact that they have chosen to resit the exam as a driver making, in theory, them more likely to put in a passing grade.

But this doesn’t allow for human error, people who have let the fact that they have unsuccessfully sat the exam before making them nervous, the expectation that they don’t need to put in as much preparation as they did it last year, and for some the inability to put their ideas across in the format required.

With all that taken into account, I would suggest that the percentages of people passing who are retakers and first time takers is probably a lot closer than you’d expect.